电解铝期货品种周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be strong in early September. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and China is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, with an expected increase in downstream operating rates. Aluminum prices may still be strong in early September, but the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side. The overall macro - environment is positive, but there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation during the off - season. After the positive sentiment is digested, the aluminum price may face a risk of falling after reaching a high point, and the 21,000 yuan/ton mark remains under pressure [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The market will experience large - range oscillations, and prices are expected to be strong in early September. It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - Logic for Trend Judgment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, China is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream operating rates are expected to rise [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Due to Trump's tariff actions, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it was advisable to wait and see [7]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Aluminum prices may be strong in early September. The resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side. In the next week, the support level for SHFE Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is at 20,900 - 21,000 [8]. - Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. 3.3 Overall View - Bauxite Market: Mining in Shanxi and Henan is restricted by safety and environmental inspections, while the output in Guizhou has increased significantly. The domestic bauxite output increased month - on - month in July. Guinea's state - owned mining company took over GAC's mining rights, and the supply of imported ore is expected to remain stable. The bauxite inventory in China has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet this year's production needs. However, there is still some political uncertainty in Guinea in September [10]. - Alumina Market: As of August 22, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.3 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.78%, which has been rising since May and is currently at the highest level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: According to Steel Union data, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 97%. Under the background of carbon neutrality, the ceiling of China's electrolytic aluminum output is controllable, and the growth rate of new global production capacity has slowed down [10]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on aluminum products on August 18, which has limited short - term impact on China, but the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum Profiles: The operating rate remained stable at 50.5%. Construction profiles have not improved significantly, while orders for photovoltaic and automotive applications are relatively stable. The market is expected to operate stably in the short term [11]. - Aluminum Sheet, Strip, and Foil: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 66.0%, and the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 70.0%. The orders have improved compared with July, and the operating rates are expected to continue to rise [11]. - Aluminum Cables and Wires: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises increased by 1% to 63.6%. As the power grid construction cycle restarts in September and the peak delivery season approaches, the demand for aluminum cables and wires is increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise in late August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys remained stable at 56.6%. Some enterprises' orders increased due to trial restocking for the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the growth is mainly concentrated in large - scale enterprises. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.0%, and it is expected to continue to decline due to the rectification of illegal tax rebates [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 595,000 tons, an increase of about 1% from last week and about 26% lower than the same period last year. The supply has changed little, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [11][17]. - Aluminum Rod: The inventory of aluminum rods is 119,000 tons, a decrease of about 12% from last week and about 7% higher than the same period last year. The price has dropped, and downstream enterprises have increased their inventory in anticipation of the peak season [11][17]. - LME Aluminum: The LME aluminum inventory has remained basically flat, and it is still at a low level since 1990. Considering the weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US and the US's expansion of aluminum product tariffs, the LME inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [11][17]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 380 yuan/ton [12][19]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton [12][19]. - Market Expectation: The positive domestic and international macro - environment and potential supply risks in electrolytic aluminum keep the aluminum price oscillating strongly. However, there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation during the off - season. After the positive sentiment is digested, the aluminum price may face a risk of falling after reaching a high point, and the 21,000 yuan/ton mark remains under pressure [12]. - Personal View: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the overall macro - environment is positive. Trump's tariff actions have affected export expectations, but the short - term impact on China is limited. Aluminum prices may be strong in early September, but the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side [12]. - Key Concerns: The magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the inventory accumulation of domestic social stocks, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most bauxite varieties remained stable, while the price of alumina in Henan decreased slightly by 0.15%. The price of动力煤 increased by 1.29%, and the price of沪铝主力合约 decreased by 0.67% [13]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 2.77% week - on - week. The inventory of alumina increased by 1.52% week - on - week. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.85% week - on - week, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 11.85% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 60.0% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery, but the substantial improvement in demand is still limited. Some sectors have shown marginal improvement due to the expectation of the peak season, but the overall terminal demand has not fully recovered [24][25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Despite the recent inventory accumulation, the near - month contracts are at a premium to the far - month contracts, and the futures market is still relatively resistant to decline [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,700 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,640 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of overseas funds continued to rise slightly. Powell's hint of an interest rate cut at the global central bank meeting has further increased the expectation of a rate cut in September. However, the manufacturing data in Europe and the US continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [40]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable. The net long position of financial speculative funds has been decreasing slightly since August, while some institutional positions have increased their net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July, and the net long position increased slightly this week. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with a slightly greater upward elasticity [43].