长江期货养殖产业周报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs is expected to increase significantly after September, and the price may experience a phased rebound but with limited upside potential. In the long - term, prices will continue to face pressure. For eggs, short - term supply is abundant, restricting price increases, while long - term high supply may be difficult to reverse. Corn supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may decline due to concentrated new - crop supply and lower costs [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the national spot price of pigs was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.61 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg. The futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13,840 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was - 230 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of breeding sows is sufficient, and production performance has improved. The supply of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased. The proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter has increased, and the average slaughter weight has risen for two consecutive weeks. - Demand: Weekly slaughter capacity and volume have slightly increased, but the fresh - meat sales rate has fluctuated narrowly, and the frozen - meat inventory rate has slightly increased. The demand is expected to increase at the end of August, but the profit of slaughtering enterprises is still in the red, limiting the increase in demand. - Cost: The price of piglets has decreased, the price of binary breeding sows has remained flat, the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned negative, and the cost of fattening pigs has slightly increased [4]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance of sows has reached the highest level in the past four years, and the number of newborn piglets has increased [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The state's pork purchase and storage mainly boost market sentiment. The supply pressure will be alleviated, and consumption is expected to improve, which may drive a phased price rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the supply will increase before May next year, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short - sell on the 11 and 01 contracts, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. 3.2 Eggs 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main 2510 contract was 3033 yuan/500 kg, down 149 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 393 yuan/500 kg, up 169 yuan/500 kg [6][66]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The number of newly - laid hens in August remains high. Although the culling of old hens has accelerated, the supply of cold - storage eggs has supplemented the market, and the overall supply is still abundant. The inventory of laying hens in July reached the highest level in the same period in history. - Demand: The current low egg price has stimulated downstream procurement, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the inventory in each link has increased [6]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - laid hens from September to November 2025 is expected to be large due to high replenishment from May to July 2025. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has declined, and the supply growth may slow down [89]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg price may stop falling and rebound, but the high supply in the short - term will limit the increase. If the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season fails again, the culling may increase, alleviating the supply pressure in the distant months. It is recommended to short - sell on the 10 contract after the price rebounds or hold put options. If the culling process accelerates, there may be opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts [6]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of August 22, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [7][95]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The inventory of traders is low, but the new spring corn in North China has been launched, and the policy - related grain rotation has supplemented the supply. The import of corn in July decreased significantly. - Demand: The demand for feed has increased, but the high price difference between corn and wheat has squeezed the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is still in the red, and the start - up rate is low [7]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The 2025/2026 corn planting is stable, and the climate suitability is very high. The planting cost has decreased [114]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short - term, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated supply of new crops and lower costs. It is recommended to short - sell on the 11 contract after the price rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [7].