长江期货贵金属周报：央行峰会偏鸽，价格具有支撑-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Powell's dovish speech at the central bank summit increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut. The weak July US non - farm payrolls data and the outcome of US trade negotiations led to a rebound in precious metal prices. With the US tariff policy mostly settled, concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook support the prices of precious metals. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the annual rate of the US July PCE price index [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to Powell's dovish speech at the central bank summit and increased expectations of a September interest rate cut, the price of US gold rebounded. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3417 per ounce, up 1.05% for the week, with an upper resistance level of $3470 and a lower support level of $3350. US silver also rebounded, with a weekly gain of 3.6%, closing at $39.4 per ounce, with a lower support level of $37.7 and an upper resistance level of $40.5 [6]. 3.2 Weekly View - Powell's dovish remarks, weak July US non - farm payrolls data, and the outcome of trade negotiations contributed to the rebound in precious metal prices. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The US tariff policy is mostly settled, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook support precious metal prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the annual rate of the US July PCE price index [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yields), US Treasury yields (10 - year and 2 - year), inflation expectations, currency exchange rates (euro - dollar, pound - dollar), the US dollar index, the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields, the gold - silver ratio, the Fed's balance sheet size and its weekly changes, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but does not provide specific analyses [14][15][17][18][20][21][23][24]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 23.5 million, higher than the expected 22.5 million and the previous value of 22.4 million. The preliminary value of the eurozone consumer confidence index in August was - 15.5, lower than the expected - 14.9 and the previous value of - 14.7 [27]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Powell's dovish speech at the central bank summit signaled a possible 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. He also suggested that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices might be a one - time shock. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, while the service PMI slightly declined. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 23.5 million, the highest since June, and the number of continuing jobless claims reached 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [29]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, COMEX inventory decreased by 2,255.64 kg to 1,199,469.53 kg this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 1,110 kg to 37,455 kg. For silver, COMEX inventory increased by 29,102.81 kg to 15,815,723.22 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 32,432 kg to 1,109,123 kg [12]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of August 19, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 201,870 contracts, a decrease of 18,673 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 43,225 contracts, an increase of 1,529 contracts from last week [12][38]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, August 26, at 20:30, the preliminary monthly rate of US durable goods orders for July will be released. On Thursday, August 28, at 20:30, the revised annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP for the second quarter and the revised annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index for the second quarter will be announced. On Friday, August 29, at 20:30, the annual rate of the US PCE price index for July and the monthly rate of US personal spending for July will be released [40].