L周报：旺季临近是否迎来反弹窗口-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [7600] price level for the 12601 contract. The demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with marginal improvement in the pattern and short - term upward drivers. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new capacity being put into production and high existing production loads [6]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, different hedging strategies are recommended. For example, factories and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and concerns about PE price drops can buy put options and short futures contracts on the futures market; traders and end - customers can take corresponding actions according to their purchase and inventory management needs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - Standard Basis: The spot price of plastic standard products has risen synchronously, and the basis has weakened slightly. The basis in East China has weakened by 10 to around - 100 yuan/ton, in North China by 30 to around - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China by 30 to 20 yuan/ton [17]. - Non - standard Basis: The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18]. - Futures Spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread has fallen back to the previous low of around - 10 this week. The L - PP01 spread has risen steadily and is currently close to 300 yuan/ton. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and the demand for agricultural films starts in September [42]. 3.2. Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - Cost Curve: The oil - based process has the largest production capacity share (67.22%), with the East China oil - based cost at 7443 yuan/ton; the coal - based process (18.82%) is an important supplement with relatively high profits, and the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost is 5250 yuan/ton [54][55]. - Production Profits: This week, oil prices continued to fluctuate, and the oil - based end profits have recovered compared with the previous period. The Northeast Asian ethylene price has remained stable, and the profit from purchasing ethylene for production has weakened recently. The coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains high, while the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under tight supply and demand [57]. - Domestic Capacity and Production: As of August 2025, the newly added domestic PE capacity is 370.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.38%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 613 million tons, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 17.17%. This week, the PE production was 61.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.31 million tons compared with the previous week, and the operating rate decreased by 8.1% to 78.72% due to many device overhauls [78][79][80]. 3.3. US Dollar Price and Import Profit - US Dollar Price: The northwest European price is at a high level, especially for LD and ED. The US dollar price in the Chinese market has shown mixed trends; the Southeast Asian price is stable with weak demand, and the South Asian price has declined due to poor rainy - season demand [102]. - Import Profit: The import windows for LD and some HD have opened, and the market offers have increased compared with the previous period [111]. 3.4. Downstream Operation and Profit - Downstream Operation: As the peak season approaches, the demand is gradually recovering. Some agricultural film enterprises have seen a slight increase in orders, but it is still in the off - season and weaker than previous years. The packaging film operation rate has increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the operation rates of pipes, blow - molding, and injection - molding have also changed to different extents [128]. - Downstream Profit: The profits of plastic film products such as agricultural film and packaging film are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand, but specific profit data are not comprehensively summarized in the text. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased by 5.74 million tons to 50.19 million tons, with the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increasing by 5.8 million tons and the coal - based inventory decreasing by 0.06 million tons. The social inventory has decreased by 1.21 million tons to 55.65 million tons. The downstream restocking and transactions are weak, with the upstream inventory accumulating and the social inventory continuing to decline [151]. 3.6. Position, Transaction, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - Position: The positions of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 577,012, 571,625, and 600,000 respectively [161]. - Transaction Volume: The transaction volumes of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 900,022, 800,000, and 1,119,745 respectively [162][163][164]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of L registered warehouse receipts on August 22, 2025, is also provided in the document, but specific analysis is not further elaborated [169].