国投期货综合晨报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to price fluctuations in the crude oil market, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for risk - avoidance [1]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech, the probability of a September interest rate cut is high, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities [2][3]. - The supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations of various commodities such as base metals, energy, and agricultural products vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine have increased, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Affected by the US sanctions on Iran, fuel oil futures rose. Global inventories showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals were relatively bullish [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas market has stabilized. Domestic imports and refinery outflows have increased, and the market is expected to remain volatile [23]. - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. Metals - Precious Metals: After Powell's speech, the dollar fell, and precious metals rose. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in a volatile range [2]. - Base Metals - Copper: The price of copper rose. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September is high, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels flexibly [3]. - Aluminum: The downstream start - up rate of aluminum has increased seasonally, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price of aluminum is testing the upper resistance of the shock range [4]. - Zinc: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and short - allocated in the medium - term [7]. - Lead: The price of lead is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a support level [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The price of nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions actively [9]. - Tin: The price of tin has recovered. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10]. - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price has fallen, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to control risks [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price has risen slightly, and the market is expected to remain volatile [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - Alumina: The supply is in excess, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and the spread with AL may narrow [5]. Building Materials - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The price of steel has rebounded. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan [14]. - Iron Ore: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level [15]. - Coke: The price is volatile. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [16]. - Coking Coal: The price is rising. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [17]. - Manganese Silicon: The price is weakly volatile. The demand is good, and the price is affected by policy expectations [18]. - Silicon Iron: The price is weakly volatile, following the trend of manganese silicon and affected by policy expectations [19]. Chemicals - Urea: After the export news was released, the futures price fell. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and exports [24]. - Methanol: The import volume has decreased slightly, and the inventory may accumulate to a historical high in the third quarter. The current situation is weak, and the future expectation is strong [25]. - Styrene: The futures price is in a consolidation state. The cost is weakly volatile, and the supply and demand are in a wide - balance state [26]. - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The price of propylene has been boosted by supply and demand. The supply pressure of polyethylene exists, and the demand for polypropylene is slowly recovering [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: The price of PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and the price of caustic soda is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and limited in the long - term [28]. - PX & PTA: The price of PX has strengthened, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The supply and demand are expected to improve [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The medium - term focus is on policies and peak - season demand [30]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: Globally, the demand for bio - fuels may drive up soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to enter long positions [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US policy on bio - fuels and the Indonesian government's policy on palm oil are the main drivers of price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The demand for rapeseed oil in the bio - fuel field is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are tight [37]. - Soybean No. 1: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure, and the price difference with imported soybeans has rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to weather, policies, and trade [38]. - Corn: The price of Dalian corn may adjust upward in the short - term, but it may continue to run weakly at the bottom in the long - term [39]. - Live Pigs: The price of pigs is slightly stronger. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [40]. - Eggs: The spot price has rebounded slightly. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [41]. - Cotton: The price of US cotton is in a narrow - range shock. The domestic market is worried about new - cotton pre - sales, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are good. The price is expected to be volatile [43]. - Apples: The price is volatile. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Timber: The price is volatile. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp: The price is in a weak shock. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will follow the spot price to decline [20]. - Stock Index: The A - share market has risen, and the external macro - liquidity is stable. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - Treasury Bonds: The price of treasury bonds is falling. The A - share market is rising, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].