信用周报20250824：本轮信用债调整还会持续吗？-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The current adjustment of credit bonds is mainly due to the hot equity market and the decline in the profit - making effect of pure bonds, which leads to the diversion of funds from the bond market. Risk preference may be the main driving factor for the recent trend of credit bonds, and the stock - watching and bond - trading pattern may continue in the short term. If the scale of fixed - income + wealth management continues to grow, it may support the demand for medium - to - high - grade, medium - and short - duration non - financial credit bonds, but it may be difficult to reverse the overall trend of credit bonds. It is recommended to shorten the duration, moderately sink the medium - and short - duration of urban investment bonds, mainly allocate medium - to - high - grade industrial bonds, and institutions with strong trading ability for bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds can trade quickly in and out [2][11][17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1本轮信用债调整或仍将持续？ - 1.1本轮信用债调整原因探析 - There is an obvious calendar effect. Around August, credit bonds are relatively weak. This is because around August, there are intensive policies for stable growth such as wide - fiscal and stable - real - estate. The concentrated issuance of government bonds disturbs the capital market, and the wide - credit guides the expectation to turn, which cools the bond market sentiment. Since July 2025, the hot equity market and the decline in the profit - making effect of pure bonds have led to the diversion of funds from the bond market, and credit bond yields have fluctuated upward [10][11] - 1.2每轮调整阶段信用债特征 - In the comparable historical adjustment stages from 2023 - 2025, in terms of the maximum callback amplitude, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally have a larger callback amplitude than other credit bonds, and medium - and short - duration bonds have a relatively large callback amplitude; in terms of the callback start time, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, medium - and short - duration bonds, and high - grade bonds tend to start the callback first; in terms of the callback end time, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds end the callback first, and 7 - 10 - year bonds end the callback later [12][14] - 1.3信用债后续走势判断 - Risk preference may be the main driving factor for the recent trend of credit bonds. The dovish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the increasing expectation of US interest rate cuts are beneficial to boosting risk preference. The equity market is expected to continue to have a significant impact on the bond market. If the scale of fixed - income + wealth management continues to grow, it may support the demand for medium - to - high - grade, medium - and short - duration non - financial credit bonds, but it may be difficult to reverse the overall trend of credit bonds. It is recommended to shorten the duration [15][17] 3.2信用债收益率全览 - Last week (August 18 - 22, 2025), the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. Credit bonds continued to weaken, performed worse than interest - rate bonds, and the spreads widened overall. Short - duration credit bond yields rose relatively slightly, with a maximum increase of no more than 8bp; among medium - and long - duration bonds, the 10 - year AAA - grade urban investment bond had the largest increase of 13bp. Urban investment bonds had the largest average increase in yields, and short - end industrial bonds were similar to urban investment bonds, while medium - and long - duration industrial bonds performed better than urban investment bonds. The 3 - year financial bonds performed the worst [22] 3.3一级市场 - 3.1发行量 - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the net financing scale increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly driven by financial bonds. From August 18 - 22, the credit bond issuance scale was 401.875 billion yuan, an increase of 49.2 billion yuan month - on - month and a decrease of 30.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of credit bonds was 102.761 billion yuan [34] - 3.2发行成本 - The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased month - on - month. Last week, the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.21%, an increase of 1bp month - on - month. The average issuance interest rates of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by 8bp and 2bp respectively month - on - month, while that of financial bonds decreased by 3bp month - on - month [41] - 3.3发行期限 - The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. Last week, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.15 years, a decrease of 0.27 years month - on - month. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.28, 0.05, and 0.6 years respectively month - on - month [43] - 3.4取消发行情况 - Last week, the number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased month - on - month but were still the fifth - highest since 2023. From August 18 - 22, 18 bonds were cancelled, a decrease of 1 bond month - on - month; the total scale of cancelled issuances was 15.275 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.745 billion yuan month - on - month [46] 3.4二级市场 - 4.1成交量 - Last week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.2863 trillion yuan, an increase of 93 billion yuan month - on - month. Except for the bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, the trading volume of other credit bond varieties decreased. In terms of remaining term, trading terms of different types of bonds shifted; in terms of implied rating, trading of different types of bonds also shifted [50][53][54] - 4.2成交流动性 - Last week, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of industrial bonds decreased. For urban investment bonds, except for the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year bonds, the turnover rates of other terms increased; for industrial bonds, the turnover rates of all terms decreased; for financial bonds, except for the under - 1 - year bonds, the turnover rates of other terms increased [56] - 4.3利差跟踪 - Last week, most credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened. Except for the 1 - year AAA - grade and AA+ - grade bonds, the spreads of other terms and ratings widened. Most spreads of AAA - grade industrial bonds, except for the commercial trade industry, widened, and all spreads of AA - grade industrial bonds widened. Most spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened. The spreads of brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds widened across the board [60][68][70] 3.5周度热债一览 - The report selected the top 20 credit bonds in terms of liquidity scores for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds respectively, providing reference for investors [75] 3.6信用评级调整回顾 - According to domestic rating agencies, there were no debt - rating adjustments last week [80]