甲醇日评：焦煤反弹提振煤化工情绪-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the expected rebound space is limited. The upstream coal - head profit is high, the downstream profit is poor, and the methanol valuation is relatively expensive. The return of domestic and imported supplies drives the methanol price down. With high raw - material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, there is little demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely, resulting in weak upward drivers for methanol [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: On August 22, 2025, MA01 closed at 2405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2384 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2294 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.86%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: In various regions, prices mostly decreased or remained stable. For example, in太仓, it was 2295 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.65%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.43%); in Inner Mongolia, it increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.36%) to 2077.5 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with the exception of Datong Q5500 coal, which decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) to 577.5 yuan/ton [1]. b. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 373.7 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 422 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest MTO remained at 102 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 67.5 yuan/ton (13.61%) to - 428.57 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Product Profits: Profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased by 13.75 yuan/ton (5.93%) to 245.57 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE increased by 30 yuan/ton (76.69%) to 69.12 yuan/ton, while the profit of one product decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-33.56%) to 198 yuan/ton [1]. c. Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated and declined, opening at 2421 yuan/ton and closing at 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 377,483 lots, and the open interest was 698,146, with reduced volume and increased open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: Recent far - month arrivals of cargoes from a Middle - Eastern country were traded at +0.3 - 0.5%. Multiple methanol plants were operating stably, and the later operation dynamics should be monitored [1]. d. Trading Strategy - The previous day, MA oscillated within a range, and the night session rebounded slightly to close at 2429. The Friday - night rebound of methanol was mainly due to the significant strengthening of coking coal boosting the sentiment of the coal - chemical sector on the futures market [1].