玉米现货持续回落，盘面底部震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn 12 - contract rebounded above 400 cents per bushel due to interest - rate cut expectations and potential future yield reduction. Domestic corn spot prices continued to decline with factors like continuous corn auctions, high 09 - contract warehouse receipts, reduced domestic planting costs, and the upcoming arrival of new - season corn. The market expects that North China corn prices may fall below 2,200 yuan per ton in October. The 01 - contract of corn is in a bottom - oscillating state, with short - term oscillations around 2,150 yuan per ton. Starch factory operating rates are falling, downstream demand is weak, and starch inventories are increasing. The prices of both corn and starch are dropping, and starch factories are still suffering large losses. It is expected that the operating rates of North China starch enterprises will decline, and North China starch prices will continue to fall with the arrival of new corn [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn Situation: The US corn stood above 400 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at this level due to interest - rate cut expectations and potential yield reduction. Corn auctions are ongoing, and new - season corn will be on the market in September. The market anticipates that Shandong corn prices may briefly fall below 2,200 yuan per ton when North China corn is in large - scale supply in mid - October. Currently, corn warehouse receipts are high, and deep - processing enterprises have long - term losses, so corn spot prices are expected to continue to decline. Although new - season corn planting costs have decreased, farmers may be reluctant to sell, and the 01 - contract of corn is expected to have further downward space. Trading should follow seasonal patterns [4]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, consider buying US corn 12 when it is below 400 cents per bushel and take a small - position short - term long position on the 01 - contract of corn around 2,150 yuan per ton. For arbitrage, focus on the opportunity to widen the spread between the 01 - and 11 - contracts of corn and starch. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Market - USDA Report: The August USDA report on US corn showed that there were no changes in planted area, harvested area, and yield for the 24/25 season compared to the previous report, but there were increases in the 25/26 season. Beginning stocks decreased, production increased, and the ending stocks and stock - to - consumption ratio also changed. The average predicted price decreased [8]. - Market Factors: The US corn 12 - contract rebounded above 400 cents per bushel due to strong Fed interest - rate cut expectations and potential future yield reduction. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has expanded. As of August 14, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.05 million tons, with a cumulative export of 64.22 million tons. The export volume to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In July, the imported corn volume was 60,000 tons, and from January to July, it was 840,000 tons, compared with 1.213 million tons in the same period last year [8][9]. - Non - commercial and Ethanol Data: As of August 19, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased to 105,000 lots, and US ethanol production declined. The US corn 12 - contract is expected to have strong support at 400 cents per bushel [14]. Domestic Market - Inventory and Consumption: Feed enterprise corn inventories decreased compared to the same period last year. As of August 21, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 28.85 days, a decrease of 0.76 days from the previous week and a 0.55% decrease from the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption declined. In the 34th week of 2025 (August 17 - 23), 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1362 million tons of corn, 4,500 tons less than the previous week. Deep - processing inventories decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. As of August 20, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.147 million tons, a 7.5% decrease from the previous week [18][19]. - Port Inventories: North - port corn inventories and south - port grain inventories decreased. As of August 15, the corn inventory at the four north ports was 1.511 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 263,000 tons, and the shipping volume at the four ports that week was 329,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 82,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic - trade corn inventory was 669,000 tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 2,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 483,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 376,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.53 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [22]. Starch Market - Operating Rate and Inventory: The deep - processing operating rate decreased. From August 17 - 22, the national corn processing volume was 549,000 tons, and the starch production was 270,600 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 52.3%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous week. With the decline in North China corn spot prices, stable starch spot prices, and strong by - product prices, the profit losses of starch factories narrowed. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 78 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan from the previous week, and in Shandong, it was - 110 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous week. Downstream提货量 decreased, the operating rate declined, and starch inventories increased. As of August 20, the corn starch inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.53% increase, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 25.6% year - on - year increase [25]. Substitute Market - Wheat Prices: North China wheat arrival prices were basically stable at 2,450 yuan per ton. The price spread between wheat and corn widened, North China corn prices declined while Northeast corn prices were stable, the price spread between North China and Northeast corn narrowed, and the price spread between North China corn and the 09 - contract of corn increased [31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Livestock and Poultry Market - Pig Market: From August 7 - 14, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from the previous week [41]. - Poultry Market: From August 14 - 21, the white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.91 yuan per bird, compared with 1.78 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, compared with 0.53 yuan per catty last week [47]. Deep - processing Downstream Market - Starch Sugar and Paper Mills: This week, the F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.87%, an increase of 0.25% from the previous week, and the malt syrup operating rate was 49.18%, an increase of 1.85% from the previous week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 63.97%, an increase of 2.19% from the previous week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 69.62%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous week [50]. Price and Spread Data - Commodity Prices: Data on prices such as the Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, and price spreads between wheat and corn, sorghum and corn were presented, as well as data on the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch contracts [52][59]