贵金属期货周报：美联储主席释放鸽派信号，贵金属价格反弹-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Fundamental: Last week, the Fed's July meeting showed significant internal divergence on interest rate cuts, with most officials' public speeches leaning hawkish, leading the market to lower expectations for a September rate cut and pressuring precious metal prices. However, Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday revived September rate cut expectations. In terms of risk aversion, the US and Europe reached a trade agreement framework, imposing a 15% tariff on most goods, and preparations for a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine were underway, reducing tariff and geopolitical disturbances. Precious metal prices first declined and then rose last week, mainly affected by Fed rate cut expectations [3]. - Capital: Last week, COMEX gold inventories decreased while silver inventories increased. Gold ETF fund inflows slowed, while silver ETF fund inflows increased. Hedge funds reduced their bullish positions in gold, and the non - commercial net long positions in silver slightly increased. Overall, silver ETF and hedge fund investments were relatively strong last week [3]. - Strategy: The US economic policy uncertainty index has remained at a historically high level for a long time. The US tariff and trade policies not only increase US inflation pressure but also lead the global trade system into a stage of turmoil and reconstruction. Meanwhile, the US debt scale continues to expand, and the international community is concerned about the US fiscal sustainability. Precious metals, as strategic assets, have good risk - resistance capabilities, and the hedging demand provides a bottom - support for their prices. Coupled with the continued central bank gold - buying trend, precious metals still have upward - driving opportunities in the future. The Shanghai gold price is bullish in the long - term, oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. For Shanghai silver, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Key Indicator Fluctuations: London spot gold price was $3334.25/ounce, a 0.04% change; COMEX gold futures were $3417.33/ounce, up 0.70%; Shanghai gold main contract was 773.40 yuan/gram, down 0.34%. London spot silver price was $38.01/ounce, up 0.73%; COMEX silver futures were $38.88/ounce, up 2.26%; Shanghai silver main contract was 9192.00 yuan/kg, down 0.13% [6]. - Domestic and Foreign Gold - to - Silver Ratios: The domestic and foreign gold - to - silver ratios decreased slightly last week. The domestic ratio repaired to around 84, and the foreign ratio to around 87, significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. Powell's speech boosted September rate cut expectations, and the gold - to - silver ratio will continue to repair, opening up the price elasticity of silver [9]. - Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads: The domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver decreased slightly. Affected by Fed rate cut expectations and tariff - related risk aversion, prices were oscillating [12]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - US Dollar Index: Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, emphasizing concerns about the employment market, significantly increased market expectations for a September rate cut, causing the US dollar index to decline and precious metal prices to rise [13]. - US Treasury Real Yields: Last week, the 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasury real yields declined, mainly due to Powell's dovish speech. The increased rate - cut expectations led to a drop in Treasury yields and boosted precious metal prices [16]. - US Key Economic Data - CPI: In July, US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.8%), and core CPI increased 3% year - on - year (previous value 2.9%, expected 3%). Core inflation slightly rebounded, with service prices rising significantly and inflation pressure controllable [21]. - PPI: In July, US PPI increased 3.3% year - on - year (expected 2.5%) and 0.9% month - on - month (expected 0.2%), the largest increase since June 2022, indicating a significant increase in corporate production costs, mainly driven by service inflation [21]. - Core PCE: In June, the US core PCE price index increased 2.8% year - on - year (expected 2.7%), a four - month high, and the overall PCE price index increased 2.6% year - on - year (expected 2.5%) [24]. - PMI: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48 (expected 49.5), breaking below the boom - bust line; the ISM services PMI was 50.1 (expected 51.1), approaching the critical point, indicating a significant slowdown in the service industry [27]. - Retail Sales: In July, US retail sales increased 0.51% month - on - month, and core retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) increased 0.27% month - on - month, showing some improvement in consumer activity [27]. - Employment Data: In July, US ADP employment increased by 104,000 (expected 75,000), but the labor market cooled. Non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 (expected 110,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [30]. - Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The Fed remains divided on rate cuts. Before the September meeting, new inflation and employment data will provide more guidance. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium boosted rate - cut expectations [33]. - Tariff and Geopolitical Situation: The US and Europe reached a trade agreement framework, and preparations for a US - Russia - Ukraine meeting were underway, reducing tariff and geopolitical disturbances and alleviating risk - aversion sentiment [33]. 3. Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of August 19, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions decreased by 16,900 lots to 212,600 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 2,300 lots to 46,500 lots [36]. - ETF Positions: As of August 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 8.59 tons to 956.77 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 217.50 tons to 15,288.82 tons [37]. 4. Other Elements - Gold and Silver Inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 38.5638 million ounces, a 0.19% decrease, and COMEX silver inventories were 508.4869 million ounces, a 0.18% increase [44]. - Gold and Silver Demand: In August 2025, global gold reserves increased by 38.65 tons to 36,344.49 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 2.18 tons to 2,298.53 tons. In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased 3% year - on - year to 1,249 tons. The global silver shortage is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces in 2025, and silver prices are expected to be boosted by loose monetary policy and industrial demand [47]. - This Week's Key Attention: This week, important events include Fed officials' speeches and the release of US economic data such as July PCE price index, Q2 GDP, and July durable goods orders, which may provide new guidance for the Fed's rate - cut path [49][50].