日度策略参考-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current market liquidity is still abundant, with the A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the previous high of "924". Under internal and external favorable factors, market sentiment is good, and the stock index may continue to operate strongly [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman has boosted the expectation of a September interest rate cut, leading to a strong rebound in precious metals, and silver has greater elasticity than gold [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: Expected to continue to operate strongly due to abundant liquidity and positive market sentiment [1]. - Treasury Bonds: In a volatile state as asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warnings from the central bank suppress the upside [1]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The dovish statement of the Federal Reserve Chairman boosts the interest rate cut expectation, leading to a strong rebound, with silver more elastic than gold [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: With the increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, the copper price is expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Aluminum: Although the interest rate cut expectation rises, the domestic downstream demand is under pressure during the off - season, so the price fluctuates [1]. - Alumina: Despite the weak fundamentals of increased production and inventory, the decline in bauxite shipments in Guinea during the rainy season, combined with high electrolytic aluminum profits, presents an opportunity to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc: The price has rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment, but the large domestic fundamental pressure limits the upside space [1]. - Nickel: Driven by the dovish statement of the Federal Reserve Chairman, the price rebounds with macro - fluctuations in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, sell on rallies, and be aware that long - term over - supply of primary nickel still exists [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price rebounds with short - term fluctuations, affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, sell on rallies, and gradually take profits on spot - futures positive spreads [1]. - Tin: The price is boosted by improved macro - sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. Industrial Metals - Polysilicon: There are expectations of capacity reduction in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, and good profits, resulting in a volatile situation [1]. - Lithium Hydroxide: Resource - end disturbances are frequent, and the short - term downstream replenishment is large but the subsequent replenishment space is limited, leading to price fluctuations [1]. Building Materials and Steel - Rebar: The valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces provides a short - term support range, and the upward drive follows coal [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: In the long - term, the "anti - involution" situation persists, and the short - term sector is weak with price pressure [1]. - Silicon Iron: The short - term sector is weak, and the price is under pressure due to long - term "anti - involution" [1]. - Glass: The current situation is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - Soda Ash: The steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal average. The market suppresses the steel price to balance supply and demand, and the coke and coal fundamentals are weakening, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Their fundamentals are weakening, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with the same logic as for steel price suppression [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia's low inventory and high export prices, along with the peak - season stocking in major consuming countries and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation in Indonesia next year, have an impact. The US decision on biodiesel blending obligations for small refineries next week will provide new guidance [1]. - Soybean Oil: There are expectations of reduced soybean arrivals, a consumption peak in the fourth quarter, and an open export trade flow, leading to a re - pricing. The support from raw material costs also drives the price up [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The reduction in Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected increase in sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price. The increase in customs duty deposit for Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant reduction in supply, but the import of Australian rapeseed may ease the shortage [1]. - Cotton: The short - term price increases with position - building, and the 01 contract has limited upside. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - Sugar: It is operating strongly due to the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited, with attention paid to the 5600 - 6000 range [1]. - Corn: The new - season contracts C11 and C01 are under pressure due to the expected selling pressure during the autumn harvest and reduced planting costs. However, the relatively positive inventory - building attitude compared to last year limits the downward space on the futures market, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Soybeans: The tight supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans and the relatively stable Brazilian soybean export CNF premium under the current Sino - US trade policy support the price. The market is expected to fluctuate due to frequent policy - related news [1]. - Pulp: The external market quotation has increased, and after the price decline, the pulp futures valuation is low, with a short - term expected rebound [1]. - Logs: The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Hogs: The near - month contracts are weak due to spot market drag. In the second half of the year, as the inventory recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term price has a rebound demand due to the un - reached agreement in the US - Russia meeting, continued OPEC+ production increase, and previous large price drops [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil price. The cost disturbance and demand recovery balance each other, resulting in limited fluctuations [1]. - SHK Rubber: The raw material cost is strongly supported by domestic产区 rainfall, the inventory reduction is slow, and the short - term commodity market sentiment is positive [1]. - BR Rubber: With continuous OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil fundamentals are loose. The BR market is stable and rising, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of cis - butadiene plants [1]. - PTA: The domestic PTA production has decreased due to concentrated device maintenance. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weak benzene price restricts the further increase in PX production. The spread between PX and MX has recovered, and the profit has been repaired with improved sales and inventory reduction [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side, resulting in price fluctuations [1]. - PVC: With improved macro - sentiment, a decrease in maintenance compared to the previous period, and the arrival of the downstream seasonal peak season, the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - PG: Driven by market rumors of capacity reduction in the petrochemical and refining industries, the progress of the US - Russia meeting, changes in shipping costs, and supply - demand changes, the price is affected, and attention should be paid to the September contract cancellation and the 9 - 10 month spread [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping on the European Route: There are signs of a peak in freight rates, European ports are still congested, and the situation in August is more specific [1].