瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may experience a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation where supply increases slightly and demand is currently weak but expected to recover, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and weak demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,770 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was 45 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract open interest was 248,343 lots, up 11,056 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 14,210 lots, down 1,521 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92, down 0.03; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 124,605 tons, up 3,952 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 57,144 tons, down 2,746 tons [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,184 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 11 yuan, down 19 yuan; the main - contract open interest was 193,845 lots, up 10,870 lots [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was 15 yuan, unchanged; the main - contract open interest was 8,185 lots, up 291 lots [2]. - LME Aluminum: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum was 2,622 US dollars/ton, up 29 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 478,725 tons, down 800 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 13,250 tons, down 800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was 2.07 US dollars/ton, up 2.54 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - Alumina Spot: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of alumina was 6 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 220 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The monthly production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 50 million tons, up; the national monthly opening rate was 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the total capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the export volume was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and scraps was 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume was 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume was 248,198.71 tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the export volume was 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the opening rate was 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points; the social inventory was 54 million tons, down 0.70 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The monthly production of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, up 5 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot: The monthly production was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the total built - in capacity was 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The monthly automobile production was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 5.73%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.28%, up 0.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 8.69%, down 0.0027 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.08, up 0.0071 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell joined the dovish camp, opening the door for a September interest rate cut, and the market increased bets on a US interest rate cut [2]. - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on the implementation of the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy and study opinions on releasing sports consumption potential and further promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry [2]. - From January to July, the added values of the five major industries mainly involved in the machinery industry showed a year - on - year growth trend. The general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 8.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry grew by 3.8%, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 10.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.9%, and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry grew by 7.1% [2]. - The personal consumer loan discount policy will officially start on September 1st, which is the first time the central finance has implemented a discount policy in the field of personal consumer loans. It is expected to have a great impact on the consumer finance industry [2].