每周投资策略-20250825

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, with each cut being 25 basis points, as indicated by Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole summit [10][15][16] - The "rate cut trade" has been reestablished, with a focus on stocks like Mobileye and Klaviyo, as well as the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Real Estate ETF [10][17][22][23] - Mobileye is positioned for growth in the advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) market, with significant orders expected for its L2+/L3/L4 products by 2024 and partnerships with major automotive companies [22] - Klaviyo, a leading digital marketing platform, is projected to capture a growing market share, with a focus on cross-selling new products and expanding into adjacent markets [22] Group 2: European Market Focus - The path to peace between Russia and Ukraine remains challenging, with significant obstacles in territorial conditions and security assurances [30][34] - European defense spending is expected to increase significantly, with NATO members committing to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP, benefiting companies like Rheinmetall and Rolls-Royce [35][39] - Rheinmetall is well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending, with projected annual revenue growth of 20% through 2030 due to rising demand for military equipment [39] - Rolls-Royce is experiencing growth in its civil aviation business, supported by strong demand across all end markets, while also benefiting from increased defense spending [39] Group 3: Philippine Market Focus - The Philippine economy showed stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 2025, driven by improved employment and loose monetary policy, with further interest rate cuts anticipated [49][52] - The Philippine stock market is seen as attractive due to low valuations, with the MSCI Philippines Index trading at approximately 11 times earnings, and is expected to benefit from regional capital inflows [52] - Key sectors to watch include banking, utilities, and real estate, with specific companies like BPI, BDO Unibank, Converge, and Ayala Land highlighted for their potential [52][53]