分歧终弥合，静待新变量

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting have bridged the divide on September rate cuts, boosting market sentiment[3] - Prior to Powell's speech, the market expected a hawkish stance, with a 75% probability of a 25bp rate cut according to the CME model[3] - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the dollar index rebounded, while U.S. Treasury yields fell, and both U.S. stocks and gold prices rose[3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The expectation of a 25bp rate cut is likely to be fully digested in the short term, with attention shifting to Nvidia's earnings report as a potential new variable[3] - Economic data, particularly employment figures, could trigger expectations for accelerated rate cuts if they show unexpected weakness[3] - Conversely, if inflation reflects tariff impacts, the market may shift to a stagflation narrative[3] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risk Considerations - As the rate cut trade matures, a cautious approach is recommended for extreme assets, particularly in the Nasdaq index[3] - The market's enthusiasm for AI tech giants appears to be waning, as evidenced by significant declines in high-valuation stocks like Palantir[3] - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[49]