Changjiang Securities·2025-08-25 09:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - Recent guidance from the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for local governments to fulfill payment obligations for existing PPP projects, which is expected to improve cash flow for waste incineration and water services [4][14] - As of August 22, 2025, 95% of the 2 trillion yuan quota for replacing hidden debts has been implemented, accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission has reiterated the importance of adjusting public utility prices, with water and waste disposal fees being gradually increased across various regions [30][29] Summary by Sections Government Payment Implementation - The recent guidance on existing PPP projects highlights the necessity for local governments to include related expenses in their budget management and ensure timely payments [4][14] - The funding sources for these projects can include local government special bonds, central transfer payments, and local self-owned funds, which may strengthen the repayment guarantees for future PPP projects [15][14] Debt Replacement and Special Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has significantly accelerated, with 1.91 trillion yuan issued from January to August 2025, primarily aimed at replacing hidden debts [5][19] - Local governments are actively addressing existing hidden debt issues, which is expected to enhance liquidity for affected parties [19][22] Public Utility Price Adjustments - The report notes that many regions have been slow to adjust water and waste disposal fees, leading to financial losses for water supply companies [30][29] - Recent adjustments in water prices have been observed in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with average increases of 15.8% for residential water rates [30][34] Investment Logic - The combination of government payment implementation, debt replacement, and price adjustments is expected to positively impact cash flow in the waste incineration and water sectors [36][38] - The industry is experiencing stable growth, with improved cash flow and increased dividends, driven by market reforms and a shift towards direct sales to industrial and commercial clients [38][39]