综合晨报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries [1][2][3] - Different commodities show diverse trends, with some in an upward or downward movement, while others are in a state of oscillation [1][3][4] - Policy expectations, especially the "anti - involution" policy, have a significant impact on the prices of some commodities [18][19][27] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a correction in the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options for hedging and enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: On Friday, influenced by the news of the US intensifying sanctions on Iranian oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. The inventory pressure is showing signs of relief, and the fundamentals are relatively bullish [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas market has stabilized recently. The domestic market faces supply increases, and the high - base - spread pattern may continue. It is expected to remain in a state of oscillation [23] Metals - Precious Metals: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the US dollar declined, and precious metals rose sharply. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in an oscillatory range [2] - Base Metals: - Copper: The copper price rose last Friday. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, driving up the prices of precious metals and risk assets. There is resistance at 79,500 yuan for Shanghai copper [3] - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum is oscillating strongly. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, and the inventory is likely to remain low. It is testing the resistance in the range of 20,800 - 21,000 yuan [4] - Zinc: The SMM zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September supports the price. The fundamental pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [7] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, but there is still uncertainty in the market. It is advisable to actively enter short positions [9] - Tin: The tin price recovered last Friday. Overseas tin inventory is slowly increasing, and the domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased. Short - term long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [10] - Carbonate Lithium: The carbonate lithium futures price broke below 80,000 yuan. The market trading is active, and the overall inventory is basically flat. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and risk control should be done well [11] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [12] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures continue to oscillate. The price of N - type polysilicon has risen. The market is focusing on the terminal's acceptance of component prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted [13] - Iron and Steel Products: - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel price rebounded on Friday night. The rebar apparent demand increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The hot - rolled coil demand improved, and the inventory also increased. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [14] - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures oscillated last week. The supply is strong, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] - Coke & Coking Coal: The prices of coke and coking coal oscillated upward last night. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The short - term volatility is large, and the downside space is relatively small [16][17] - Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The supply of both is increasing, and the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [18][19] Chemicals - Urea: After the export news was confirmed last week, the urea futures price continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is greatly affected by market sentiment and exports [24] - Methanol: The methanol import volume decreased slightly. The actual situation is weak, but the expectation is strong. Attention should be paid to the overseas device situation and market sentiment in the fourth quarter [25] - Styrene: The styrene futures continue to consolidate. The cost side oscillates weakly, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state. The fundamentals still have a dragging effect on the price [26] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The price of propylene is boosted by positive supply - demand factors. The polyethylene supply pressure remains, and the demand support is limited. The polypropylene supply has short - term support, but the downstream demand recovery is slow [27] - PVC & Caustic Soda: The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply and insufficient demand. The caustic soda price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, but the long - term supply pressure is still high [28] - PX & PTA: The PX price rose last week, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, and the PX supply - demand is expected to improve [29] - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price rebounded from 4,400 to 4,500. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The market is expected to improve in the medium - term [30] Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern is emerging. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The market is expected to be cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long - term [35] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The US biofuel policy and crop conditions affect the prices. The Indonesian government's policies have an impact on palm oil. The prices of soybean oil and palm oil can be considered for buying on dips [36] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel field is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and the futures price has room to rise [37] - Soybean No. 1: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure due to auction supply and weak demand. The price of imported soybeans is relatively strong [38] - Corn: The Dalian corn futures may adjust upward in the short - term. The domestic corn market is expected to be bearish due to good weather and low auction成交率 [39] - Hogs: The hog price is slightly stronger on the weekend. The central reserve frozen pork purchase is expected to have an impact on the market. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term [40] - Eggs: The egg price rebounded slightly on the weekend. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, which may support the price next year [41] - Cotton: The US cotton price oscillates narrowly. The domestic cotton market has concerns about new - cotton pre - sales, but the impact may be limited. The Zhengzhou cotton can be bought on dips [42] - Sugar: The US sugar price oscillates, and the domestic sugar market has relatively light inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] - Apples: The apple futures price oscillates. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Timber: The timber futures price oscillates. The domestic supply may remain low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - Pulp: The pulp price oscillates downward. The domestic port inventory is high, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an interval - oscillation strategy [46] Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market is bullish, with high trading volume. The external macro - liquidity is stable, and the risk preference is strong. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bond futures price oscillates downward. The overseas bond yield rise and the strong A - share market put pressure on the treasury bond price. The yield curve is expected to steepen [48]