洽洽食品（002557）：成本上涨及费用投放增加，盈利能力短期承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure due to rising costs and increased expenditure [1] - Revenue for H1 2025 decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, with net profit down by 73.7% [4][5] - The company is actively developing new products and expanding into new channels, which is expected to gradually improve overall operations in H2 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 revenue and net profit were reported at 2.75 billion and 90 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 5.1% and 73.7% [4] - Q2 2025 showed a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year, reversing the downward trend seen in Q1 [5] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for H1 2025 were 20.3% and 3.22%, down 8.1 and 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue Breakdown - For H1 2025, revenue growth rates for various product categories were -4.5% for sunflower seeds, -7.0% for nuts, and -13.8% for other products [5] - E-commerce and overseas markets performed well, with revenue growth of 24.8% and 13.2% respectively [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new products such as mountain wild series sunflower seeds and ice cream, as well as expand its digital channel services [7] - The overall business is expected to improve gradually due to the combined efforts of new products and new channels [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 400 million, 680 million, and 730 million yuan respectively, with a significant year-on-year decline of 52.7% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [4][9] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 29.4, 17.5, and 16.2 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][9]