Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-25 09:36Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the plastics industry dated August 25, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industrial, downstream, and options markets, as well as industry news and a summary of views [1][2] Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 2423 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38 yuan; the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices were 7423 yuan/ton, 7426 yuan/ton, and 7365 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 43 yuan, 34 yuan, and 44 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 261,365 lots, an increase of 35,677 lots; the open interest was 393,878 lots, a decrease of 364 lots [2] - The 9 - 1 spread was - 58, an increase of 1; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 34,883 lots, an increase of 2410 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7317.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 21.3 yuan; in East China, it was 7385.95 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.9 yuan [2] - The basis was - 62.17, an increase of 27.31 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.71 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.91 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The national PE petrochemical plant operating rate was 78.72%, a decrease of 5.47 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.85%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points; for pipes, it was 30.67%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 14.53%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, China's polyethylene production was 618,100 tons, a decrease of 6.50% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 78.72%, a decrease of 5.48 percentage points [2] - From August 15th to 21st, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.5% from the previous period [2] - As of August 20th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 501,900 tons, an increase of 12.91% from the previous period; as of August 22nd, the social inventory of polyethylene was 562,000 tons, an increase of 0.99% from the previous period [2] Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 12.91% to 501,900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 2.14% to 556,500 tons, and the total inventory pressure is not significant [2] - The polyethylene maintenance plan in August was basically fulfilled, and the concentrated maintenance devices are expected to restart from late September to early October, temporarily relieving the supply pressure [2] - This week, Yulong Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical plan to restart, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to increase month - on - month [2] - The demand for agricultural films is seasonally increasing, but due to the narrowing of agricultural product profits, the follow - up of greenhouse film orders is limited. High - temperature and heavy - rainfall weather also disturbs the demand for greenhouse films. Packaging film demand is mainly for rigid needs [2] - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is rising, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited, and the recent international oil price has rebounded, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices [2] - Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 7450 [2]