Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-25 09:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (09626) [8] Core Insights - Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [2] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, with a profit margin of 7.7%, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year and surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 8% [2] - User growth remains strong, with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 363 million, up 8% year-on-year, and daily active users (DAU) at 109 million, up 7% [8] - Advertising revenue in Q2 2025 reached 2.45 billion yuan, also up 20% year-on-year, with expectations for continued strong growth in the second half of the year [8] - The gaming segment reported revenue of 1.61 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60% year-on-year, driven by new game releases [8] - The value-added services segment generated 2.84 billion yuan in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in membership subscriptions [8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 36.5%, with a continuous improvement trend over the past 12 quarters [8] - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.45 billion, 3.28 billion, and 4.19 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous forecasts [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: - 2023: 22.53 billion yuan - 2024: 26.83 billion yuan - 2025E: 29.97 billion yuan - 2026E: 32.90 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.46 billion yuan [4] - The adjusted net profit forecast is as follows: - 2023: -3.43 billion yuan - 2024: -0.02 billion yuan - 2025E: 2.45 billion yuan - 2026E: 3.28 billion yuan - 2027E: 4.19 billion yuan [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections are: - 2023: -8.29 yuan - 2024: -0.05 yuan - 2025E: 5.83 yuan - 2026E: 7.80 yuan - 2027E: 9.96 yuan [4]