2025年8月杰克逊霍尔会议点评：左右互搏的美联储新框架

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's speech indicates rising employment risks, suggesting a more proactive rate cut approach in the second half of the year, aligning with previous assessments[3] - The adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects a reduced tolerance for high inflation and an increased tolerance for low unemployment, adapting to the current economic environment[3] - If the August non-farm employment data does not exceed expectations, a rate cut in September is highly probable[3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by 1.9%, 1.5%, and 1.9% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.26%[4] - The U.S. economy is facing headwinds, with a 10% year-on-year increase in business bankruptcies in the first half of the year and a continuous decline in core GDP growth[9] - The labor market remains tight, with a participation rate around 62.5%, 0.6 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels, and a high job vacancy rate[24]