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铂钯期货白皮书:铂、钯基础知识介绍
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-25 11:02
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the supply of platinum and palladium is expected to decline, with platinum's mineral supply dropping by 4% to 529.5 million ounces and palladium's by 5% to 616.5 million ounces. However, the global palladium recycling volume is expected to rise to 270.5 million ounces [21][24]. - The demand for platinum is expected to slightly increase to 720.5 million ounces in 2025, while the demand for palladium is expected to decline to 862.5 million ounces, mainly due to the decline in automotive industry demand [41]. - In 2025, the supply - demand pattern of platinum and palladium is expected to show a differentiated trend, mainly due to the relative low price of platinum compared to palladium and the impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on palladium circulation [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain Introduction - Platinum group metals include six elements: ruthenium (Ru), rhodium (Rh), palladium (Pd), osmium (Os), iridium (Ir), and platinum (Pt). Platinum and palladium are important industrial precious metals with wide applications in industry and jewelry [3][5]. - The mining and purification of platinum and palladium are complex. They are often symbiotic with copper - nickel sulfides and chromite, and the average grade of primary ore is only 2 - 10 g/t. Recycling accounts for about 30% of platinum supply and 20% of palladium supply. After refining, they are mainly used in automotive exhaust catalysts, as well as in chemical, electronic, glass, petroleum, medical, and other fields [12]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Supply Situation 3.2.1 Reserve Distribution and Major Production Enterprises - In 2024, the total proven reserves of platinum - group metals globally exceeded 81,000 tons, concentrated in southern Africa, North America, and the Far East of Europe. China's reserves are less than 1% of the global total [18]. - The top 10 global suppliers of platinum and palladium are mainly concentrated in South Africa, Russia, and North America [18]. 3.2.2 Platinum Supply - In 2025, the platinum mineral supply is expected to decline by 4% to 529.5 million ounces, with South Africa's supply expected to decrease by 170,000 ounces. The recycling supply in 2025 is expected to slightly recover [21]. 3.2.3 Palladium Supply - In 2025, the palladium mineral supply is expected to decline by 5% to 616.5 million ounces, mainly affected by the production decline in South Africa and North America. The global palladium recycling volume is expected to rise to 270.5 million ounces [24]. 3.2.4 Introduction of Major Supply Enterprises - Anglo American Platinum Ltd. is the world's largest platinum producer, with 80% of its assets in South Africa's Bushveld Complex. In 2025, its production is expected to be 3.8 million ounces, accounting for 30% of the global supply [29]. - OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel is a leading global mining and metallurgy group. Its palladium production accounts for nearly 40% of the global total. In the first three quarters of 2024, its palladium production was 2.156 million ounces and platinum production was 521,000 ounces [29]. - Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd is a major global producer of platinum - group metals, with mines in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Canada. In 2024, its total production of platinum - group metals was 3.65 million ounces, accounting for over 30% of the global supply [30]. - Stillwater Mining Co. is a leading global producer of platinum - group metals. In 2023, its annual production of platinum and palladium was about 408,000 ounces, accounting for about 7% of the global supply [30]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Downstream Applications 3.3.1 Automotive Catalysts - Platinum, palladium, and rhodium are key components of automotive catalysts. In the long - term, the demand for platinum and palladium in automotive catalysts is not optimistic due to the development of new energy vehicles. In the short - term, the sales increase of second - hand gasoline vehicles may boost the demand. In 2024, the demand for platinum and palladium in automotive catalysts accounted for 48% and 83% respectively [33]. 3.3.2 Jewelry - Platinum is regarded as a high - end jewelry representative, while palladium is rarely used in jewelry due to its discoloration. In the future, the application of platinum and palladium in jewelry faces a downward risk. In 2024, the demand for platinum and palladium in jewelry accounted for 19% and 1% respectively [34]. 3.3.3 Industry - Platinum's industrial demand is concentrated in glass manufacturing, chemical catalysis, and electronics. Palladium's industrial use is mainly in the chemical and electronic industries. In 2024, the demand for platinum and palladium in industry accounted for 32% and 15% respectively [35]. 3.3.4 Hydrogen Energy - Platinum - group metals play a crucial role in hydrogen energy development. The development of hydrogen energy is in its infancy, and the demand for platinum and palladium may increase in the future. In 2024, the demand for platinum and palladium in hydrogen energy accounted for 1% and 0.3% respectively [38]. 3.4 Price and Futures 3.4.1 Global Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Balance - In 2020, the prices of platinum and palladium rose significantly due to the shutdown of mining and smelting in South Africa. In 2021, the supply surplus intensified. In 2025, the supply - demand pattern of platinum and palladium is expected to show a differentiated trend [48]. 3.4.2 Global Platinum and Palladium Futures Market - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to launch platinum and palladium futures contracts this year. The London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) is the most important global spot trading market, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is the largest global platinum futures trading market [56][60].