尿素周报：盘面回归基本面-20250825

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The export - related positive sentiment has been mostly digested, while weak domestic demand is dragging down the futures price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to remain bearish in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, the futures market rose due to the China - India friendly talks, driving up the spot price. In the second half, the market transaction atmosphere was average, and factories generally lowered prices to attract orders, with limited results. Since the weekend, the urea price has shown a fluctuating downward trend, and demand remains weak [4][5]. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price first declined and then rose, showing an overall upward trend but finally falling back. As of August 11, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 18. Last week's trading volume was 2,806.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,781.45 million tons; the open interest was 620.05 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.91 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of August 25, the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. On August 25, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,123, a week - on - week increase of 1,550 [8][9][10]. Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly urea production increased. From August 15 to August 21, the weekly urea production was 1.3611 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0125 billion tons or 0.93%, with an average daily production of 0.1944 billion tons. Among them, coal - based weekly production was 1.072 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23%; gas - based weekly production was 0.2891 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%. In the next cycle, it is expected that 4 enterprises will stop production and 1 enterprise will resume production, so the probability of a decrease in production is relatively high. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 0.1947 billion tons, and the operating rate was 82.55%. The price of thermal coal increased due to tight supply, while the price of liquefied natural gas decreased. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, and the price of methanol increased [15][17][18]. Urea Demand - side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat week - on - week. As of August 22, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a historical high for the same period, and the room for further increase is limited. Affected by environmental protection restrictions for the military parade, the operating rate has slightly decreased and will resume production later, but the overall increase is limited. The inventory of finished products in factories has been at a five - year high for the past two months, and the probability of centralized fertilizer procurement is low. From August 15 to August 22, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84%, a decrease of 2.64 percentage points from the previous week and 2.24 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.6%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from the previous period and 18.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of August 22, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0665 billion tons or 6.65%, and 0.5633 billion tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 0.483 billion tons, a decrease of 0.01 billion tons from the previous week [20][22]. International Market - China's third batch of urea exports is expected to complete customs clearance on October 15, about 700,000 - 800,000 tons. With the easing of China - India relations, there will be export quotas to India. India has a continuous demand for urea and will continue to issue tenders. Under China's export expectations, the international urea price will be under pressure. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts), with a bid - closing date of September 2 and a bid validity period of September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. As of August 22, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions remained flat week - on - week [24].