冠通期货铜周度策略展望-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is still gambling on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, copper prices will fluctuate significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have risen sharply, with the expected probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. The weakening of the US dollar boosts the prices of non - ferrous metals, and copper prices rebounded on Monday. Fundamentally, both the international and domestic copper markets show a tight supply pattern, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange still supports copper prices. Although the downstream is in a weak state during the off - season, with the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaching, the market generally has confidence in the improvement of demand. Copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, significantly higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. The manufacturing output and backlog of orders sub - items rose to a nearly two - year high, and the new orders and employment indicators were strong. The factory finished - product inventory indicator rose to the highest level since records began in 2007. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 235,000, with an expected 225,000 and a previous value of 224,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, with an expected 49.5 and a previous value of 49.8 [10] 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper was generally in a downward - trending oscillation. The highest price of the week was 79,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 78,480 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.02%, and the interval decline was 0.47% [14] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 22, the average premium of cathode copper in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The increase in the number of imported copper squeezed the domestic market. With limited downstream demand and no obvious boost for the time being, the copper premium was under pressure [20] 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of August 22, the weekly change of LME copper was - 0.05%, closing at $9,725/ton. The spot discount of LME copper strengthened slightly, and the LME copper inventory continued to accumulate. With the rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, LME copper still maintained a discount [25] 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 22, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. Due to the collapse of the El Teniente mine, Codelco in Chile is expected to reduce its copper production to 316,000 tons in 2025 [31] 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 22, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.32 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.14 cents/pound. After stabilizing for several weeks, the TC/RC fees weakened again this period. The mid - year negotiation result of the long - term contract set the TC/RC at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long - term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still at a loss. The current sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. The factory's seasonal maintenance plan will still lead to a reduction in production in September and October [35] 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, the output of electrolytic copper in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. The previously shut - down smelters gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - operation smelter in East China has started production, so the output is expected to fluctuate little. In the later part of the third quarter, production may be reduced or halted due to the tight mineral resources and the swelling of sulfuric acid storage. In July, the import volume of refined copper was 336,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 110 tons; the export volume was 118,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 69.12% and a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons [39] 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In July 2025, the import of scrap copper was 190,100 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume, higher than market expectations. However, due to tariffs, the import of scrap copper from the US decreased significantly, and the scrap copper resources in other regions were also in a tight pattern. The narrowing of the price difference between refined and scrap copper was beneficial to the consumption of refined copper, and the operating rate of scrap - copper rod production decreased [44] 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. As copper prices fell, the quantity of downstream replenishment at low prices increased. Although the current increase in copper demand is limited, with the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, copper consumption is expected to increase [48] 3.10 Copper Products - According to Steel Union data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The market is generally cautious about the consumption of refined copper rods in August. Although a month - on - month increase is expected, the increase in the production schedule of refined copper rods in August is expected to be limited. The production of copper tubes is mainly stable. The weak terminal demand is transmitted from the bottom up, and the change in August is expected to be limited. The operating rate of copper tubes may be boosted after the demand improves in September [53] 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.11 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 50.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the cumulative average utilization of national power generation equipment was 1,806 hours, a decrease of 188 hours compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The year - on - year increase in solar and wind power was 98.8% and 107% respectively [57] 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Among them, the investment in residential buildings was 4.1208 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [63] 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 502,000, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%, with a penetration rate of 58%. As the peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, each new energy vehicle requires 83 kilograms of copper, supporting the expectation of a peak copper season in "Golden September and Silver October" [68] 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - The inventory accumulation speed of LME copper has gradually slowed down and has now risen to the median level in the same period in history. The inventory of COMEX copper has gradually reached an inflection point and basically no longer accumulates significantly. As of August 22, the LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% and a month - on - month increase of 24.95%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 271,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08% and a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. On August 21, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 93,200 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons compared with the 14th and a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the 18th. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly. With the opening of the import window in recent times, the bonded area goods cleared customs and flowed into the domestic market, but the export goods from smelters still arrived and were stored in the warehouse. The inflow and outflow were relatively balanced, so the change was limited. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange started to accumulate slowly. Although it still fluctuated at a low level, it increased by 3,799 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The demand side did not follow up smoothly for the time being, and the low - level inventory still supported copper prices [73][78]