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兴业期货日度策略-20250825
Xing Ye Qi Huo·2025-08-25 11:15

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the financial futures market, the index has broken through the high point, and sentiment has warmed up again. It is recommended to continue holding the long positions in the IF2509 contract of the CSI 300 index. In the commodity futures market, it is advisable to adopt a long - position strategy for methanol and palm oil [1]. - For various commodities, the report provides detailed analyses of their fundamentals and market trends, and gives corresponding investment suggestions such as holding long positions, short - term long positions, or adopting option strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3800, and the bullish sentiment has continued to heat up. Last week, the A - share market rose strongly, with the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increasing to 2.58 trillion yuan. The communication, electronics, and computer industries led the gains, while the real estate and pharmaceutical sectors lagged. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal, and the domestic tech stock market was boosted by news related to domestic chips. The macro - environment is stable, market liquidity is abundant, and the upward drive for the index is clear. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [1]. Treasury Bonds - The issuance of treasury bonds was weak last week, and liquidity remained loose. The bond market was weak throughout the week, with the 30 - year treasury bond showing the most significant decline. Although the stock - strong and bond - weak trend remains unchanged, the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened. The bond market's follow - up decline momentum has weakened, but the upward pressure remains. A cautious and slightly bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Methanol - Factory inventories are extremely low, and demand is gradually improving. It is recommended to enter new long positions in the MA601 contract [2]. Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased by 4.8%, and China's methanol imports in September and October are expected to remain at a very high level. If the macro - environment provides positive factors, methanol may strengthen [10]. Palm Oil - The supply - demand situation in the main producing areas is optimistic. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in the P2601 contract [2]. Precious Metals - Gold: After Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 84.7% (+9.7%). The gold price continues to operate in a high - level oscillation range and is relatively strong in the short term [4]. - Silver: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, but there may be fluctuations in the rate - cut expectation before the September FOMC meeting. The silver price may oscillate upwards, and it is suitable to buy on dips. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options in the 10 - contract and patiently hold the long positions in the 10 - contract [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The macro - environment shows policy support expectations, and the Fed's dovish stance has strengthened the financial attribute support for copper. The supply shortage at the mine end continues, and the global exchange inventory has decreased. The long - term support for the copper price remains, and the support at the lower level has been further strengthened [4]. - Aluminum: The alumina market has an oversupply situation, but its valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. The financial attribute of Shanghai aluminum has improved, with clear supply constraints and optimistic demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the upward space [4]. - Nickel: The supply of nickel is abundant, and the downstream demand has not significantly improved. However, the macro - environment has become more favorable, and the range - bound pattern with upper pressure and lower support is difficult to break. It is recommended to continue holding the option - selling strategy [4][6]. Energy - related Commodities - Lithium Carbonate: The resumption of production by smelting enterprises has reduced the market's expectation of a supply shortage. The supply pattern remains loose, and the lithium price is under short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of the reserve verification report on the mica mine mining rhythm in Yichun [6]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The production of industrial silicon is stable, and the market inventory is high. The terminal demand for polysilicon is weak, and with the cooling of policy - related disturbances, the price support for polysilicon may decline, and the futures price is expected to fall [6]. - Crude Oil: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September has soared, and the US dollar has fallen. The supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is relatively calm. The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventory. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace issue shows that it is unlikely to make a major breakthrough in the short term, and the crude oil price has stabilized [8]. Steel and Minerals - Rebar: The spot price has risen, and the inventory has increased. The military parade - related production restrictions will affect the supply, and the terminal demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The coal mine safety accident will support the steel - making cost. It is recommended to take profits on the short - position of out - of - the - money call options in the RB2510C3300 contract and lightly open new long positions in the 01 - contract. There is a clear driver to short the steel mill's profit by going long on furnace materials and short on rebar [6]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The spot price has slightly increased, and the inventory has increased. The impact of production restrictions on hot - rolled coil supply is limited. The coal mine safety accident will support the cost. The hot - rolled coil price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black metal sector, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to shrink [6]. - Iron Ore: The long - process steel mills are profitable, and the blast furnace hot - metal production remains at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of imported iron ore is slowly accumulating, and the inventory is basically stable. The production restrictions during the military parade will have an impact, but the blast furnace restart drive is strong after the parade. The short - term price of the 01 - contract is expected to operate in the range of [760, 820] [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The daily output of raw coal has slightly increased, but the supply is still at a low level compared to the same period. The production restrictions during the military parade and safety inspections will limit the supply increase. It is recommended to lightly open short - term long positions and pay attention to the actual production rhythm in early September [8]. - Coke: Northern coke enterprises have entered the production - restriction stage, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region are facing production cuts. The spot price has completed seven rounds of increases, and the market increase has slowed down. The short - term futures price will follow the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of upstream and downstream enterprises [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply exceeds the demand, and the alkali plant's inventory is increasing. The daily output has decreased, and attention should be paid to the production progress of the Alxa Phase II project. The coal mine safety accident may support the soda ash price. If the coal price strengthens again, it is recommended to take profits on the previous short positions in the 01 - contract [8]. - Float Glass: The terminal demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the production - sales ratio has improved. The current supply - demand balance is slightly loose. If there are supply - side constraints, the supply - demand structure may improve. The glass price, especially the near - month price, has fallen below the cost line, and the odds of short - selling strategies are low [8]. Polyolefins - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, which is beneficial to commodities. The production of PP is at a historical high, while the PE production has decreased to a medium - to - high level. As the peak season approaches in September, the downstream operating rate has accelerated. The demand for packaging films, plastic weaving, and injection molding related to daily necessities is expected to improve, but the demand for pipes related to infrastructure and real estate is expected to remain weak. The fundamentals of PE are better than those of PP, and the L - PP spread continues to widen. It is recommended to consider taking profits when the spread exceeds 400 yuan/ton [10]. Rubber - The demand for rubber is expected to be positive. The retail sales of passenger cars in mid - and early August have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The policy is still favorable for the automotive market. The tire enterprise operating rate has slightly increased, and the de - stocking rate of all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. The raw material production rate of ANRPC is lower than expected, the new rubber production rhythm is slow, and the port inventory is decreasing. The fundamentals of natural rubber are continuously improving [10].