投资策略研究：流动性视角下的“慢牛”行情讨论

Group 1 - The report discusses the "slow bull" market driven by the "deposit migration" phenomenon, indicating that this process may still be in its early stages. As of July 2025, non-bank deposits increased by 4.69 trillion yuan, while resident deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, suggesting a shift in investment preferences towards higher-yielding products like the stock market [10][11][12]. - The report highlights that the stock market is experiencing a significant increase in trading volume, with total transaction amounts exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August 14, 2025. This reflects a notable rise in market liquidity and investor engagement [18][22]. - The report notes that small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks, and growth sectors are performing better than cyclical sectors, which aligns with characteristics typical of the early stages of a bull market [15][19]. Group 2 - The report indicates that various types of funds are becoming increasingly active in the stock market. Margin trading balances have surpassed 2 trillion yuan, with high-risk appetite funds maintaining a strong market sentiment [3][18]. - Retail investors are gradually entering the market, with a steady increase in new accounts, although their overall sentiment remains cautious due to previous market highs. For instance, the number of new accounts in July 2025 was 1.96 million, which is still below previous peaks [24][28]. - Private equity funds have shown a consistent upward trend in issuance since September 2024, contributing significantly to the current "slow bull" market. The private equity heavy index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during this period [28][29]. Group 3 - Public funds, including actively managed and passive funds, have seen a significant increase in issuance compared to the previous year, contributing to positive market feedback. The stock fund index has shown a notable upward trend since September 2024 [33][34]. - Insurance and foreign capital are increasingly entering the market, with insurance funds accelerating their investments in stocks since the implementation of new policies. The report anticipates further growth in insurance fund inflows into the stock market [39][41].