七轮提涨落地，限产预期仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the coking coal prices in the domestic market fluctuated. The seventh round of coke price increase was fully implemented, strengthening cost support. However, due to policy regulation and insufficient downstream demand, the futures prices were under pressure. The current market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. The supply is slightly recovering, but still affected by disruptions. The demand is supported by the rigid needs and low inventories of coking enterprises. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent for the time being. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, and to mainly stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit trading [2][4][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal prices in the domestic market fluctuated this week. The seventh round of coke price increase was fully implemented, enhancing cost support. But due to policy regulation and insufficient downstream demand follow - up, the futures prices were under pressure [2][4] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On August 22, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, emphasizing further strengthening of fiscal, tax, and financial policy support for large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies [6] - The August Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the third consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% [6] - The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% applicable tax rate [6] - In July, the national passenger car manufacturers' wholesale volume reached 2.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. From January to July, the cumulative wholesale volume was 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [7] - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.037 million tons, a decrease of 178,000 tons compared to the previous period [7] - In July 2025, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in Australia decreased to 4.59693 million tons, lithium spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 11,965 tons, and manganese ore exports increased to 18,160 tons [7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to their own underground reasons, while most maintained normal production. Due to weakened downstream demand and a slower procurement pace, coal washing plants and traders became more cautious in procurement, and market trading activity declined [2] - On the demand side, after the seventh round of coke price increase, steel mills had high production enthusiasm due to profit support. The steel mill segment showed a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations". Coke prices were supported by demand resilience, but the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies would limit their upward space [2] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - On the supply side, some coal mines that had stopped or reduced production resumed operations, but there were still new production stoppages and reductions in some areas. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port increased by 239 vehicles to 1,263 vehicles [30] - On the demand side, coke production increased slightly, but coking enterprises maintained a demand - based procurement strategy, and upstream coal mines began to accumulate a small amount of inventory [30] - Overall, the supply recovery was limited due to continuous disruptions, and the demand was supported by the rigid needs and low inventories of coking enterprises. The supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It was recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, and to mainly stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit trading [30]