钢材期货周度报告：淡季进入尾声，关注限产扰动-20250825

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the steel price may fluctuate and strengthen. The fundamentals need time to improve continuously. The construction steel output may continue to decline slightly due to seasonal factors, while the output of the five major steel products may rise slightly in the short - term. The bottom of building material demand may have appeared and will gradually recover later, and manufacturing demand remains resilient due to export support. However, the steel price lacks strong driving forces and is expected to stay within a certain range [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, coking coal prices increased twice, strengthening market expectations. But due to weak fundamentals, market sentiment returned to rationality, and prices showed a volatile downward trend. The average national price of rebar decreased by 49 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire rods decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that policies on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in have achieved obvious results, and further policy support is needed to release domestic demand potential [6]. - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months in August [6]. - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [6]. - In July, the wholesale volume of passenger cars reached a record high, and the production of various household appliances showed different trends [7]. - From August 11 - 17, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly [7]. - In July, the exports of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland decreased, while manganese ore exports increased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis The average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 9.48 tons, lower than last week's 10.23 tons. Steel demand in the off - season remained weak, with downstream terminals purchasing on demand and merchants having low restocking willingness, resulting in strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Supply: Construction steel output may continue to decline slightly due to seasonal factors, while the output of the five major steel products may rise slightly in the short - term [29]. - Demand: The suppression of construction steel demand by high - temperature weather continues, but the bottom of building material demand may have appeared and will gradually recover. Manufacturing demand remains resilient due to export support [29]. - Market: The overall black market closed slightly down. The rebar main contract 10 is expected to stay within the 3050 - 3250 range next week. Attention should be paid to the support around 3100 and the weekly pressure around 3165 [29]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - delivery arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coil - rebar spread, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for option strategies, use， wide - straddle consolidation [2][29].