冠通每日交易策略-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply - demand balance, and approaching peak seasons [10] - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited as it approaches the peak seasons with demand support, but the market is volatile [12] - Crude oil price rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to short at high prices due to approaching end of peak season and supply - demand changes [13][15] - Asphalt futures are expected to oscillate, affected by cost support and demand constraints [16] - PP is expected to oscillate, with attention on the global trade war and potential policy impacts [17][18] - Plastic is expected to oscillate, considering factors like cost, supply, and approaching peak seasons [19] - PVC is expected to decline with high fundamental pressure and weak demand [20][21] - Caution is advised when chasing the rise of coking coal, mainly affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [22] - Urea's short - term trend is expected to be bearish due to weak supply - demand [23][24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of August 25, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with coking coal up over 6%, fuel oil up over 5%, etc.; some contracts like plywood fell. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed different degrees of increase [6] 3.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:19 on August 25, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 300 2509 and CSI 500 2509, and flowed out of contracts like Shanghai Copper 2509 and Shanghai Tin 2509 [8] 3.3 Core Analysis of Each Variety Copper - Macroeconomic factors support copper prices, but the market is still gambling on the Fed's interest - rate cut. Supply is tight both at home and abroad, and demand is expected to pick up in peak seasons [10] Lithium Carbonate - Production declined in August - September. Supply concerns eased with some restarts, and demand was stimulated after the price correction, with limited decline space [12] Crude Oil - At the end of the peak season, inventory decreased, but supply and demand are expected to weaken in the future due to factors like OPEC+ production increase and global oil surplus adjustment [13] Asphalt - Supply decreased, demand was constrained by factors like weather and funds, and cost support strengthened, leading to oscillating futures [16] PP - Downstream and enterprise开工率 changed, supply increased with new capacity, demand was weak but expected to improve in peak seasons [17][18] Plastic -开工率 increased, demand was generally weak but with signs of improvement in the agricultural film sector, and it is expected to oscillate [19] PVC - Supply was relatively high, demand was weak, exports were expected to decline, and inventory pressure was large, leading to a downward trend [20][21] Coking Coal - Prices rose due to the Fed's dovish signal, with supply increasing and demand affected by factors like steel - mill profits and environmental protection [22] Urea - Supply and demand were both weak, inventory was high, and the short - term trend was bearish [23][24]