Workflow
有色金属日报-20250825
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-25 11:32

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Red, indicating a bullish trend) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Zinc: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic events, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different metals show different trends such as upward, downward, or oscillatory movements, and corresponding investment strategies are provided based on these trends [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper rose above 79,500 yuan due to the probability of Fed rate cut in September, domestic refined copper consumption substitution effect, and the expiration of 2509 options. The spot copper price reached 79,395 yuan, with Shanghai premium at 140 yuan and Guangdong premium at 60 yuan. SMM copper inventory decreased by 8,700 tons to 123,000 tons over the weekend. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1,550 yuan. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 80,000 yuan and the opportunity to sell call options [2] Aluminum - SHFE aluminum oscillated strongly. The spot premium in East China was 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 20,000 tons and aluminum rod inventory increased by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear. SHFE aluminum will oscillate in the short - term, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area. Cast aluminum alloy follows SHFE aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the spot - SHFE aluminum cross - variety price difference may further narrow [3] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts rising. Supply surplus is emerging, and spot indices are falling. The price in Henan was 3,200 yuan today. Alumina is in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to Powell's dovish remarks, the expectation of a US rate cut in September increased. The fundamental situation is supply increase and demand weakness. The price rebounded, but downstream acceptance of high - price zinc ingots is low. The spot is at a discount to the futures, and holders tend to deliver to the warehouse. SMM zinc social inventory rose to 138,500 tons. The market is dominated by short - covering, and long - entry is cautious. In the medium - term, SHFE zinc is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton are preferred [4] Lead - The expectation of primary and secondary lead production cuts is strengthening, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 68,300 tons, supporting the price rebound. Although the consumption peak season is not prosperous, downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. In September, the new national standard for electric two - wheelers and the anti - dumping tariff on Chinese starting lead - acid batteries in the Middle East will be implemented, and SHFE lead is expected to oscillate [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with dull trading. Traders are reluctant to lower prices, and the premium of mainstream electrowon nickel remained in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week. Downstream purchases increased due to the price decline. Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons. Technically, nickel price has the intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling positions are sought [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased positions slightly and shifted the main contract to 2510. The short - term resistance for the overseas market is at $34,000, and the corresponding weighted price of SHFE tin is 270,000 yuan. The overseas tin market is supported by low inventory and weak Indonesian supply, while the domestic market has low supply and demand. Tin price may rise in the short - term, and long - positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and trading volume shrank. Some miners sold during the price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply. After the price drop, there was temporary reluctance to sell. Downstream companies adjusted their psychological price levels and were cautious in restocking. In July, lithium ore imports increased significantly, providing sufficient raw materials for domestic lithium - spodumene smelters. The total market inventory decreased slightly by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 3,000 tons to 47,000 tons and downstream inventory increasing by nearly 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The mid - stream output decreased by 5% week - on - week. In the price decline, the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of small - scale enterprises, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A bullish approach with risk control is recommended [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures oscillated. After the expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy stabilized, there were more news about industrial silicon capacity elimination, but the impact on overall supply is limited. Fundamentally, both supply and demand increased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The weekly social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to trade in the range of 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. After the industry meeting, the price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction situation is unclear. The current spot price corresponds to the lower end of the oscillation range, and the upside space depends on the implementation progress of capacity - related policies. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [11]