贵金属日报-20250825

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia stalled, and the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation remains uncertain. Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting led to a drop in the US dollar and a short-term jump in precious metals. A rate cut in September is almost certain, and the degree and persistence of the rate cut will be debated later. If the US economic data weakens significantly, the upside potential for gold may open up; if the economy has a relatively soft landing, be cautious at high levels. Short-term international gold and silver are in a sideways range with key resistance above. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - This week, focus on the US PCE data [1]. Summaries by Related Topics Fed's Stance - Harker believes the Fed should be cautious about rate cuts; a significant weakening of the job market may prompt a rate cut, and the Fed is still far from its inflation target [2]. - Collins thinks the risks of the dual mandate are roughly balanced. Employment growth has slowed, and there is a reason to wait [2]. - Musalem says the risks in the job market are rising but not yet apparent. If the risks intensify, the policy rate may need adjustment [2]. - Trump believes Powell should have cut rates a year ago, and it's too late to signal a rate cut now. He also threatens to fire Fed Governor Cook [2]. Russia-Ukraine Situation - Trump sets a "two - week" timeline, which may increase the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]. - The US Vice President says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [2]. - Zelensky is ready to take measures for peace and is cautious about Russia's signals [2].