2025杰克逊霍尔央行年会点评：9月降息大门敞开

Global Macro - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve is likely to open the door for a rate cut in September, driven by the increasing risks in the employment market outweighing inflation risks [2][3] - The adjustment in monetary policy framework from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible 2% inflation target reflects the changing economic environment, indicating a shift in response to high inflation and growth conditions [4] - The report suggests that while a rate cut in September is probable, it is more of a preventive measure rather than a signal of an impending recession, as the U.S. economy shows resilience [4][3] Employment and Inflation - The employment market is facing downward risks, with July's non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations and previous months' data being significantly revised downwards, indicating potential overestimation of current employment figures [2][3] - Inflation risks are considered manageable in the short term, with the impact of tariffs expected to be gradual rather than immediate, thus supporting the case for a rate cut [3] - The labor market's downward pressure, influenced by tightening immigration policies, may also help to suppress inflation, further justifying the anticipated rate cut [3] Economic Indicators - The report notes that key economic indicators such as retail and industrial production suggest that the U.S. economy remains robust, with a low likelihood of a recession in the near term [4][26] - The labor participation rate is declining, which may lead to a higher actual unemployment rate than currently reported, complicating the Federal Reserve's data-dependent policy approach [10][12] - The financial conditions in the U.S. are currently easing, which may support continued economic growth and limit the need for aggressive rate cuts [15][18]