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国防军工行业周报(2025年第35周):市场风险偏好不断提升,军工趋势有望持续上行-20250825
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-25 11:43

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an expectation for continued upward trends in the sector [5][6]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is entering a significant upward cycle driven by domestic demand, particularly due to military modernization efforts, which are expected to enhance growth opportunities [5]. - The global military trade landscape is evolving, with increasing demand driven by geopolitical changes, leading to a strong resonance between supply and demand in China's military exports [5]. - The report highlights the acceleration of satellite internet constellation launches, indicating a maturation of the commercial aerospace industry in China, which presents a golden opportunity for investment [5]. - Key investment targets include companies involved in next-generation equipment, precision-guided munitions, and those leveraging AI and robotics for enhanced military capabilities [5]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 3.07%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 3.27%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% [6]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 12th among 31 Shenwan primary industry indices, indicating a relative underperformance compared to other sectors [6]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week included Chengfei Integration (up 35.53%), Zhongtian Rocket (up 28.23%), and Lijun Shares (up 23.10%) [6][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 92.71, placing it in the upper range historically, indicating a high valuation compared to past performance [14]. - The report emphasizes that the aerospace and aviation equipment segments are currently at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [14][18]. Key Valuation Targets - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the defense and military sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 [20]. - Notable companies include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company with a market cap of 1,773.1 billion yuan and a projected PE of 52 for 2027 [20].