境外债系列报告：关于南向通扩容的几个关注点

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8, 2025, the PBOC will improve the Bond Connect "Southbound Link" mechanism and expand the scope of domestic investors to include four types of non - banking institutions: securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions [3][4]. - Attention should be paid to the choice of the Southbound Link's custody model, offshore RMB liquidity, and the progress of domestic bond replacement of overseas bonds. After the Southbound Link expansion, the yields of different types of and maturities of Chinese overseas bonds have shown differentiation, and the subsequent implementation of the expansion policy may support further decline in yields [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Southbound Link Custody Model - Domestic investors can choose between the multi - level direct connection custody model (through domestic bond registration and settlement institutions) and the global custody model (through domestic custody and clearing banks) to custody bond assets. The global custody model has a wider range of investable bonds [5][6]. - As of August 21, 2025, the RMB - denominated bonds held in CMU accounted for 75% of the total outstanding balance of Chinese overseas bonds, but the proportion of bonds denominated in other currencies held in CMU was generally low. The multi - level direct connection custody model has relatively limited bond selection [8]. 3.2 Offshore RMB Liquidity - Currently, the offshore RMB funding situation is generally loose, and the risk of liquidity tightening is relatively controllable. As of August 21, the 3M CNH HIBOR was at a historical low, and the 1Y CNH - CNY swap spread has returned to near zero [3][10]. - Attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of offshore RMB central bank bills in the second half of 2025. If the issuance accelerates and tightens offshore RMB liquidity, it may hinder the compression of spreads of offshore RMB bonds [3][13]. 3.3 Progress of Domestic Bond Replacement of Overseas Bonds - Since the issuance of Document No. 134, there have been cases of domestic bond replacement of overseas bonds, but there are still barriers. The number of replacement cases is limited, and the issuers who can achieve replacement mostly meet the requirements for new domestic bonds. Whether this can further reduce the credit risk of local government financing vehicle (LGFV) overseas bonds needs further observation of regulatory attitude changes [3][14][17]. 3.4 Recent Performance of Overseas Bonds - As of August 21, 2025, the static coupon of Chinese US - dollar bonds was generally higher than that of offshore RMB bonds, and the yield of Chinese US - dollar bonds declined more significantly than on July 8, showing stronger performance. However, investment in Chinese US - dollar bonds needs to consider factors such as greater valuation fluctuations, larger exchange - rate risk exposure, and hedging costs [3][27]. - For offshore RMB bonds, the yields of sovereign bonds and policy - financial bonds of different maturities have mostly been adjusted, while the yields of industrial bonds and LGFV bonds have mostly declined to varying degrees. The implementation of the Southbound Link expansion policy may support further decline in the yields of Chinese overseas bonds [27].