甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2200 - 2400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concern about methanol price decline (long position): - Short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profit and cover production cost, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent price slump and sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 15 - 20 and 45 - 60 respectively [3] Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and purchase based on orders (short position): - Buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement cost, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Methanol 09 contract oscillates weakly, with contradictions in near - term weakness and high shipments from Iran. Port pressure remains high, and the 91 reverse spread is expected to be around - 120 [4] - Iran's shipments exceed expectations (850,000 tons in August so far, likely to exceed 1 million tons this month), causing great pressure on port arrivals. Inventories in East and South China in August are almost full [4] - After the 91 spread reaches - 120, selling 09 for delivery to 01 is risk - free considering storage and transfer costs. The inland market weakens this week, with Xinjiang's goods flowing out, rising开工 in the Northwest, and low procurement enthusiasm from traditional downstream industries [4] 4. Negative Factors - This week, expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, with sufficient arrivals, leading to an expected increase in port methanol inventory [5]