棉花走高、玉米下挫

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is rising due to the continuous reduction of commercial inventory, the approaching peak consumption season, and the improvement of spinning mill orders. The corn price is falling significantly because of sufficient supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn in some areas, and the strong expectation of a new - corn harvest. The egg price is weak with high chicken inventory and poor demand. The soybean meal price rebounds due to the strong external market. Other products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton prices are rising as commercial inventories are being depleted, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak is approaching, with improved orders for spinning mills. Corn prices are dropping sharply because of continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn in some areas, wheat's continuous substitution for feed use, and a strong expectation of a new - corn harvest. Egg prices remain weak due to high chicken inventory and unmet peak - season demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton opened and closed higher, reaching a two - week high. The continuous decline of commercial inventory, the approaching consumption peak, and increased orders from European and American countries for Christmas have led to an increase in the spinning mill's operating rate and improved willingness to replenish cotton. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 14000 and resistance at 14200 [2]. 3.2.2 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn closed significantly lower, with sufficient supply. Continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn, wheat substitution, and weak downstream demand have pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2140 and resistance at 2167 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal rebounded after two days of adjustment, boosted by the strong external market. Strong US soybean export data and the rise of US soybean oil have driven up the price. Although the domestic de - stocking period has not arrived, market transactions have improved. Technically, the trend is volatile. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3096 and resistance at 3134 [5]. 3.2.4 Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs failed to rebound and continued to decline, pressured by high supply. High chicken inventory, increased production - link inventory days, and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to large supply pressure and weak demand. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [7]. 3.2.5 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs failed to rebound and closed lower again, due to sufficient supply. Although the state's frozen - pork purchase has boosted market sentiment, the supply - demand situation remains unchanged. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [9]. 3.2.6 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first rose and then fell, with high - level fluctuations. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports has promoted the price increase, but high prices may limit future demand. Domestically, the import cost has risen, and it maintains rigid demand. Technically, it is still in a strong position. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 9516 and resistance at 9736 [11]. 3.2.7 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil continued to rise in a volatile manner, strengthened by the strong US soybean oil market. Although domestic supply is relatively loose, the approaching consumption peak supports the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and engage in short - term trading, with support at 8390 and resistance at 8500 [13]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates rebounded and continued to run strongly. The new - jujube production is expected to decline, but the inventory at sample points is higher than last year. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased recently. Technically, it is in an uptrend. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 11245 and resistance at 11595 [15]. 3.2.9 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar closed higher, continuing the upward trend. The domestic market trading atmosphere has warmed up, and the de - stocking process in the producing area has accelerated. Although the sugar import volume has increased, the market has digested the expectation. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to continue holding light long positions, with support at 5664 and resistance at 5703 [17]. 3.2.10 Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples closed higher in a volatile manner. The quality of early - maturing apples is poor, and the inventory is low, which supports the price. The export volume is gradually recovering. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is for short - term long trading, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8214 [19].