Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating bearish, pay attention to the stock-bond seesaw" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock-bond seesaw remains the dominant factor, and attention should be paid to long-term bond opportunities. The main policy tone in the second half of the year is a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Although counter-cyclical adjustments such as promoting consumption and major project construction may continue to be introduced, the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited. Liquidity is expected to be loose, which may intensify stock market fluctuations and short-term bond market volatility, making short-term bond market operations more difficult. The supply-demand contradiction in the long-term bond market may be more prominent, with more obvious negative factors [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led the long-term bond market to effectively break below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. However, in the context of loose liquidity, this logic becomes less obvious, making market operations difficult. The Politburo meeting in July set the policy tone for the second half of the year, and the stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic in the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and maintain ample liquidity. In August, the central bank will conduct a 6000 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan, and a 3000 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase net investment, resulting in a total net investment of 6000 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity for the month. A new policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure. The central bank has increased the re-lending quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. In July, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In July, M2 increased by about 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by about 5.6%, and M0 by about 11.8% [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The official non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points. China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, both exceeding expectations. In July, the total goods trade import and export value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Although the economic data shows certain resilience, the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter-cyclical adjustments need to be continuously strengthened [16] 3.2 Policy Aspect - At the end of July, the broad money M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The narrow money M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The difference between M2 and M1 growth rates was 3.2%, narrowing slightly. The social financing stock reached 431.26 trillion yuan, a 9% increase from July last year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The new social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, 389.3 billion yuan more than last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has been continuously declining, and the cost of funds has decreased. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage. A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may further open up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. According to the Politburo meeting in July, the liquidity in the second half of the year will likely remain moderately loose, and the probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low [18] 3.4 Supply and Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade-in in July this year and formulate a monthly and weekly usage plan for national subsidy funds. The support from the ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal this year is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields. The issuance of special bonds has also accelerated recently [21] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term shock range and declined, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market than the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased. Recently, the stock-bond ratio has slightly decreased but is still in a high range compared to the previous period. Short-term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long-term bonds are more significantly affected by the stock-bond seesaw [23] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, and loose liquidity may be the main policy tone in the second half of the year. Loose liquidity combined with the expectation of a rising stock market may intensify stock market fluctuations and short-term bond market volatility. The stock-bond seesaw logic remains the main logic, and the logic of long-term bonds is relatively clear, so it is recommended to pay attention [26]
股债跷跷板依然主导，关注长端债券机会
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-25 11:48