鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，利好金价

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally interpreted as "dovish." His speech signaled that the Fed is more concerned about employment and economic growth when balancing the risks of "rising inflation" and "falling employment." It paved the way for a near - term interest rate cut and revised the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][23]. - After Powell's speech, the short - term interest rate cut expectation increased, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the dollar index linkage graph, but no specific text description of the weekly trend is provided [6]. 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 22 | August 15 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,417.20 | $3,381.70 | 1.05% | | COMEX Silver | $38.88 | $38.02 | 2.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | $773.40 | $775.80 | - 0.31% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | $9,192.00 | $9,204.00 | - 0.13% | | Dollar Index | 97.72 | 97.85 | - 0.14% | | USD/CNH | 7.17 | 7.19 | - 0.24% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.85 | 1.95 | - 0.10 | | S&P 500 | 6,466.91 | 6,449.80 | 0.27% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | $63.77 | $63.14 | 1.00% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 87.89 | 88.95 | - 1.19% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.14 | 84.29 | - 0.18% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 956.77 | 965.37 | - 8.60 | | iShare Gold ETF | 451.68 | 453.29 | - 1.61 | [7] 3.2 Rising Interest Rate Cut Expectations Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price was under pressure due to the improving relations between the US and Russia, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the improving global geopolitical situation. However, on Friday night, after Powell's dovish speech, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the dollar index plunged, and the gold price jumped [9]. - Last week, there was a divergence among US stock indices, with technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq generally correcting. But after Powell's dovish speech on Friday night, US stocks rose sharply again, and market risk appetite recovered [11]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to data on August 19, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was - 12,838 contracts, the short - position change was 4,057 contracts, and the net long - position change was - 16,895 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [13]. - Recently, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have decreased, especially gold ETFs. Last week, the gold price was weak, the silver price was strong, and the gold - silver ratio declined [15][18]. 3.4 Conclusion - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, increasing short - term interest rate cut expectations, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [23].