海外宏观回暖，国内产业临近

Report Information - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - Industry: Non - ferrous Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Copper: With rising overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the approaching domestic industrial peak season, copper prices may show strength. Last week, Shanghai copper weakened, with little change in open interest and a decline in amplitude. After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's interest - rate cut expectations increased, leading to a rise in copper prices. [3][52] - Aluminum: With a positive macro environment and the domestic industry entering the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Last week, Shanghai aluminum rebounded after reaching a low, with open interest decreasing when prices fell and increasing when prices rose. After Powell's speech, aluminum prices went up. On the industrial side, electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly last Thursday, and downstream aluminum rod inventory continued to decline slowly. [4][52] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was interpreted as dovish, strongly suggesting a possible monetary policy adjustment and a significant increase in the possibility of a September interest - rate cut. His speech focused on economic risk assessment and the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework. [8] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, Shanghai copper weakened, with little change in open interest and a decline in amplitude. After Powell's dovish speech, copper prices rose. [3][52] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Remain Low - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting. [24] 2.3 Slower De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - The de - stocking of domestic electrolytic copper has slowed down. [29] 2.4 Downstream Primary End - Copper downstream monthly capacity utilization data is presented, including for products like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips. [32][34] 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, Shanghai aluminum rebounded after reaching a low, with open interest decreasing when prices fell and increasing when prices rose. After Powell's speech, aluminum prices went up. Aluminum prices were stronger than the overall non - ferrous metal sector. [4][52] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Aluminum bauxite port inventory and alumina price data are presented. [39][40][41] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are provided. [42][43] 3.4 Downstream Primary End - Aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory data are presented. [45][49][50] 4. Conclusion - Copper: With overseas macro improvement and the approaching domestic industrial peak season, copper prices may show strength. [3][52] - Aluminum: With a positive macro environment and enhanced domestic industrial support, aluminum futures prices are expected to be strong. [4][52]