海外宏观回暖，铜价强势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Shanghai copper, the price increased with rising positions during the night session last Friday and maintained strong performance today, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 mark. The dovish speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on the 22nd led to a significant increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, strengthening industrial support. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the price showed an upward trend during the night session last Friday and maintained a volatile trend today. The rising overseas interest - rate cut expectation has increased market risk appetite. However, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories increased on Monday. With the improvement of the macro situation and the weak industrial reality, it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the price hit the bottom and rebounded last Friday, and the main contract price fluctuated above 120,000 today. Although the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded with the improvement of the overseas macro situation, nickel underperformed the sector. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories is suppressing nickel prices. With the improvement of the macro situation and industrial negatives, it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [6]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared to August 18 and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared to August 21 [8]. Aluminum - On August 25, the spot inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to August 18 and an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 21 [9]. Nickel - On August 25, for the mainstream reference contract SHFE nickel 2509 in the Shanghai market, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,610 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,510 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,560 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][16][20]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum average price spread, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][30][31]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][45].