国债期货日报：债市走出独立行情-20250825

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term bottom of the bond market has initially emerged. The bond market has shown an independent trend, becoming desensitized to the stock market, indicating that the short - term adjustment may be over. The Shanghai property market new policy is expected to have limited impact on the overall real estate market and will not be a negative factor for the bond market. Currently, the bond market has the conditions to build a bottom. It is not advisable to chase high prices. Low - position holders can continue to hold, and those with empty positions can buy on dips [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1盘面点评 - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher, with all lines closing up. The yields of spot bonds declined across the board, with a larger decline in the long - end. The net investment of 7 - day reverse repurchase and MLF in the open market was 621.9 billion yuan. The money market became looser, and DR001 fell to around 1.35% [1]. 3.2日内消息 - At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell was dovish, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door for interest rate cuts. He announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework, eliminating the policy of tolerating high inflation and promising to anchor long - term inflation expectations. - Shanghai issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, including no limit on the number of properties outside the outer ring for eligible buyers, single buyers being treated the same as families, increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit, allowing the use of housing provident funds for down payments, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home commercial loan interest rates, and exempting non - Shanghai residents from property tax for their first homes and providing a tax - free area of 60 square meters per person for their second homes [2]. 3.3行情研判 - Affected by Powell's dovish remarks at the global central bank annual meeting and the sharp rise in US stocks, A - shares opened higher and strengthened in the morning, retreated at noon, but recovered during the day, closing at a high point. However, treasury bonds showed an independent trend. After being affected by the stock market at the opening, they continued to rise in the morning and consolidated at a high level in the afternoon, ending the previous continuous decline. The bond market's desensitization to the stock market may mean that the short - term adjustment is in place and the bottom is becoming clear. The Shanghai property market new policy is expected to have limited impact on the overall real estate market and will not be a negative factor for the bond market [3]. 3.4国债期货日度数据 - The report provides data on the closing prices, changes, contract holdings, and trading volumes of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512, as well as the basis and trading volume of the main contracts and the changes in the basis [4]. 3.5 Other Data Charts - The report also includes charts on the basis and IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL, the interest rate trends of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, the bond spreads, the financing interest rates of deposit - taking institutions and policy interest rates, the exchange financing interest rates, the money - layer data, the yield trends of US bonds, and the US - China interest rate spreads and RMB exchange rates [5][9][10][12][13].