煤焦日报：供应支撑仍存，煤焦易涨难跌-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" theme is gradually fermenting, and the futures market is transitioning from the strong cost-side expectation of "shrinking coking coal supply supporting the rise of coke" to the verification stage, with increased market gaming. Coke futures are consolidating at high levels. In the medium to long term, coke may show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than fall due to potential favorable policies related to "anti-involution" [5][35]. - Although the supply of coking coal has marginally increased this week, with domestic production rising and significant growth in Mongolian coal imports, and it has experienced a phased adjustment due to factors such as supply recovery, exchange risk control, and downstream production restrictions, the "anti-involution" theme is still expected to bring positive news-driven factors, making coking coal futures also more likely to rise than fall [6][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, and the net injection scale has significantly expanded [8]. - On August 25, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 at 1,470 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year-on-Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi-first-grade平仓) | 1,520 yuan/ton | +3.40% | +7.04% | -10.06% | -12.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi-first-grade出库) | 1,470 yuan/ton | -0.68% | +5.00% | -9.26% | -14.04% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.48% | +0.85% | -15.60% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,530 yuan/ton | -1.92% | +2.68% | +2.68% | -12.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,630 yuan/ton | 0.00% | -1.21% | +6.54% | -4.12% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,736.0 | 4.36 | 1,754.0 | 1,672.0 | 37,931 | 16,359 | 40,659 | 2,368 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,215.5 | 6.48 | 1,229.5 | 1,162.0 | 1,938,899 | 614,426 | 722,514 | 21,826 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but specific data and trends are not described in text [14][26][33] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that both coke and coking coal are more likely to rise than fall in the medium to long term due to the potential positive impact of the "anti-involution" theme [5][6][35][36]