山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 0.46% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.89%. The short - term trade agreements are being reached in batches, and the Russia - Ukraine talks have begun, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has rebounded. It is expected that precious metals will be slightly stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. Gold price trend is the anchor for silver price. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Movements: Comex gold main contract closed at $3417.20 per ounce, up 1.00% from the previous day and 1.05% from last week; London gold was at $3334.25 per ounce, down 0.12% from the previous day and 0.04% from last week. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.32% from the previous day but down 0.46% from last week; gold T + D closed at 771.66 yuan per gram, up 0.24% from the previous day and down 0.44% from last week. [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex gold positions were 438,541 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 2.47% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract positions were 183,215 lots (kilogram per lot), down 4.31% from the previous day and 8.20% from last week; gold T + D positions were 205,334 lots (kilogram per lot), up 1.02% from the previous day and 2.94% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from last week. [2] - Net Position Ranking: Among the top 10 net - long positions of SHFE futures company members in Shanghai gold, the top 5 totaled 111,461 lots, an increase of 1,564 lots with a daily ratio of 26.85%; the top 10 totaled 143,804 lots, an increase of 3,271 lots with a daily ratio of 34.65%; the top 20 totaled 171,373 lots, an increase of 3,308 lots with a daily ratio of 41.29%. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 11,644 lots, an increase of 695 lots with a daily ratio of 2.81%; the top 10 totaled 17,890 lots, an increase of 888 lots with a daily ratio of 4.31%; the top 20 totaled 21,030 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots with a daily ratio of 5.07%. [4] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - Price Movements: Comex silver main contract closed at $37.90 per ounce, up 1.51% from the previous day but down 1.70% from last week; London silver was at $37.08 per ounce, down 2.61% from the previous day and 3.96% from last week. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 9,162 yuan per kilogram, up 1.33% from the previous day and down 1.34% from last week; silver T + D closed at 9,144 yuan per kilogram, up 1.35% from the previous day and down 1.40% from last week. [6] - Position and Inventory: Comex silver positions were 156,432 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), down 3.00% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract positions were 4,606,470 lots (kilogram per lot), down 3.63% from the previous day and 16.25% from last week; silver T + D positions were 3,269,190 lots (kilogram per lot), up 0.25% from the previous day and down 5.13% from last week. LBMA silver inventory was 24,199 tons, an increase of 1.72% from last week; Comex silver inventory was 15,814 tons, up 0.29% from last week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory was 1,115 tons, down 3.10% from last week; silver (SGE) inventory was 1,287 tons, down 1.35% from last week; the total visible inventory was 42,442 tons, up 0.03% from both the previous day and last week. [6] - Net Position Ranking: Among the top 10 net - long positions of SHFE futures company members in Shanghai silver, the top 5 totaled 112,312 lots, an increase of 8,253 lots with a daily ratio of 14.49%; the top 10 totaled 154,953 lots, an increase of 7,353 lots with a daily ratio of 19.99%; the top 20 totaled 201,277 lots, an increase of 8,992 lots with a daily ratio of 25.97%. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 44,809 lots, an increase of 5,845 lots with a daily ratio of 5.78%; the top 10 totaled 78,783 lots, an increase of 9,981 lots with a daily ratio of 10.16%; the top 20 totaled 98,540 lots, an increase of 12,950 lots with a daily ratio of 12.71%. [7] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve and US Economy: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.50%, down 0.25% from the previous level; the discount rate was 4.50%, down 0.25%; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.40%, down 0.25%. The Fed's total assets were $6,694.622 billion, an increase of 0.00% from the previous level. M2 growth rate was 4.54% year - on - year, an increase of 0.32%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.52%, down 2.33% from the previous day and 2.70% from last week; the US dollar index was 97.72, down 0.94% from the previous day and 0.14% from last week. [8] - Inflation and Employment: The CPI was 2.70% year - on - year and 0.20% month - on - month, unchanged from the previous level; the core CPI was 3.10% year - on - year, an increase of 0.20, and 0.20% month - on - month, a decrease of 0.10. The unemployment rate was 4.20%, an increase of 0.10; non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, an increase of 5,900; the labor participation rate was 62.70%, an increase of 0.10; the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.90%, an increase of 0.10. [8][9] - Real Estate and Consumption: The NAHB housing market index was 32.00, down 3.03% from last week; existing home sales were 3930,000 units, down 2.72% from last week; new home sales were 540,000 units, down 3.70% from last week; new home starts were 1,302,000 units, an increase of 3.40% from last week. Retail sales were 3.98% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.69, and 0.95% month - on - month, an increase of 1.20. Personal consumption expenditure was 4.75% year - on - year, an increase of 0.09, and 0.34% month - on - month, an increase of 0.37. [8][9] - Trade and Industry: Exports were - 21.67% year - on - year, a decrease of 5.54, and - 6.14% month - on - month, a decrease of 38.58; imports were - 18.87% year - on - year, a decrease of 3.35, and 4.19% month - on - month, a decrease of 3.16. The trade deficit was - $60.2 billion, an increase of 16.03% from the previous level. The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.00, a decrease of 1.00; the ISM services PMI index was 50.10, a decrease of 0.70. [9] - Central Bank and Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves were 2,300.41 tons, an increase of 0.18% from the previous level; the US central bank gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's central bank gold reserves were 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. The US dollar's share in IMF foreign exchange reserves was 57.80%, an increase of 0.88%; the euro's share was 19.83%, a decrease of 0.99%; the RMB's share was 2.18%, a decrease of 0.04%. [9] - Risk and Commodity Index: The geopolitical risk index was 238.03, unchanged; the VIX index was 15.69, an increase of 0.77% from the previous day and 8.28% from last week. The CRB commodity index was 296.01, an increase of 0.67% from the previous day and 0.31% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1913, an increase of 0.26% from the previous level. [9] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has changed significantly. For example, the probability of a rate cut in September has soared from around 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. [1][11]