国投期货软商品日报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Logs: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the disk [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be oscillating upward, but the upside space is still limited. It is advisable to buy on dips [2] - US sugar faces certain upside pressure, and the trading focus of the domestic sugar market has shifted to imports and next season's output estimate. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather and cane growth [3] - The trading focus of the apple market has shifted to the new season's output estimate, and for now, it is advisable to wait and see [4] - For rubber, demand has improved, supply has increased, natural rubber inventory has declined, and synthetic rubber inventory has risen. The strategy is to wait and see for RU and be bullish on NR & BR [5] - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see or adopt a range - trading mindset [6] - For logs, the supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started, so it is advisable to wait and see [7] Summary by Categories Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. The trading of pure - cotton yarn was fair, and the price was generally stable [2] - As of August 15th, the commercial inventory of cotton was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 0.3696 million tons compared to the end of July, with faster destocking than in July [2] - China's cotton imports in July were still at a low level, with 50,000 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons [2] - The market estimates that the pre - sales volume of new cotton is large, which may trigger a scramble for purchases by ginning factories, but the impact is expected to be controllable [2] Sugar - US sugar oscillated last week. Due to insufficient precipitation, the yield per unit area of Brazilian sugarcane decreased, and the production progress was slow, resulting in a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane and sugar production [3] - The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production increased year - on - year, and the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical oscillation range, so US sugar faces upside pressure [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The sales rhythm this year was fast, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - The trading focus of the domestic sugar market has shifted to imports and the output estimate for the 25/26 season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output estimate for the 25/26 season is uncertain [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated. The price of early - maturing apples was basically stable, with high - quality goods having higher prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was good [4] - There was not much remaining cold - storage apple inventory, and the market demand was average [4] - As of August 22nd, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 404,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.84%. The destocking volume of national cold - storage apples last week was 57,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.13% [4] - The trading focus of the apple market has shifted to the new season's output estimate. The western production areas were affected by moisture and strong winds during the flowering period, but the impact on output was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all rose today. The spot prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased, the port price of overseas butadiene increased, and the price in the Thai raw - material market increased [5] - Globally, the supply of natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period. Most production areas in Southeast Asia still have excessive rainfall, and Typhoon No. 13 passed by the southern part of Hainan Island and northern Vietnam [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded significantly, Xinjiang Land was under maintenance, and Dushanzi Petrochemical was operating at a low load. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants declined again [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires rebounded. The finished - product inventory of tire enterprises continued to increase [5] - Last week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 617,000 tons, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased, and the general - trade inventory continued to decline. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded to 121,000 tons, and the port inventory of upstream Chinese butadiene continued to rise significantly to 273,000 tons [5] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded today. The spot price of coniferous pulp remained stable, with the Moon brand quoted at 5,450 yuan/ton and the Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai quoted at 5,180 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaved pulp remained stable, with the Goldfish brand quoted at 4,200 yuan/ton [6] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [6] - China's social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, indicating a decline in domestic demand. Currently, the port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is still average [6] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable [7] - The arrival volume last week decreased significantly. The overseas quotation has rebounded for two consecutive months, while the domestic spot price has increased slightly, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain low [7] - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at the port fluctuates around 600,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [7] - As of August 22nd, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.05 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%. The total log inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [7]