农产品日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global vegetable oil market is strengthening due to bio - diesel policies, which may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic soybean supply may face a shortage in Q1 next year. The report is cautiously bullish on the long - term trend of domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The price of domestic soybean is weak due to increased supply pressure from policy - driven sales and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is in a consolidation state. The performance of imported soybeans is strong, and the market expects a tighter supply of soybeans in Q1 next year [2]. - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are supported by policies and market fundamentals. The domestic soybean supply expectation is changing, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation to China [2][4]. - The domestic rapeseed futures prices may be in a short - term shock and consolidation pattern, and may be supported by long - term import uncertainties [5]. - The domestic corn market may continue to operate weakly at the bottom due to sufficient supply and good growing conditions for new - season corn [6]. - The price of live hogs is expected to remain weak in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policy [7]. - The egg futures market has increased positions significantly, and the egg price may have a seasonal rebound. There are signs of capacity reduction in the egg industry, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year [8]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean - The price of domestic soybean is weak because of policy - driven sales increasing supply pressure and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is in consolidation. Imported soybeans are strong due to the US bio - diesel policy. The market expects a tighter supply in Q1 next year, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export to China, as well as domestic weather, policies, and imported soybean performance [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged due to bio - diesel policies. Domestically, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year. The growth of new - season US soybeans faces challenges. The relationship between domestic soybean meal futures and US soybeans is weakening. The report is cautiously bullish on the long - term trend of domestic soybean meal futures [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil has strengthened. The US bio - diesel policy has a general upward trend in demand but with structural adjustments. Malaysian palm oil has strong exports and limited production growth, supporting its price. The market expects a tighter domestic soybean supply in Q1 next year [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices have small fluctuations, and the position is gradually shifting from the 09 contract to the 01 contract. The supply of rapeseed is in a tight - balance state, and the market focus has shifted to the demand side. The prices may be in a short - term shock and consolidation pattern and may be supported by long - term import uncertainties [5]. 3.5 Corn - The Chinese government continues to auction imported corn, and the supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The inventory of ports and deep - processing enterprises is seasonally decreasing. The new - season corn may have a good harvest, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6]. 3.6 Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has reached a new low this year. The government plans to conduct central reserve frozen pork purchases to support the price. Fundamentally, the supply in the second half of the year is high. The price is expected to remain weak in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policy [7]. 3.7 Eggs - The egg futures market has increased positions significantly, with some contracts hitting new lows. The spot price may have a seasonal rebound. There are signs of capacity reduction in the industry, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year. It is advisable to consider going long on futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [8].