苹果产业链周报：重新蓄能-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - With the decrease in inventory fruits and the quality issues such as coloring of Gala apples recently, the futures price has shown an obvious upward trend. However, it's too early for late Fuji to color, and the current market may be overreacting. The short - term price trend is strong, but one should beware of price fluctuations caused by the inconsistency between expectations and reality [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Production Areas: This week, early - maturing apple varieties are gradually increasing in quantity. In northern Shaanxi, new - season early - maturing Gala apples have uneven quality, with a limited proportion of good - quality and large fruits, and prices are polarized. In Shandong, the old - season Fuji apples at the terminal are being digested slowly, with low cost - effectiveness, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing large and good - quality fruits is low. In early - maturing varieties, apples in Qixia are trading steadily with low supply but high merchant enthusiasm [1] - Sales Areas: The number of trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased slightly compared to the previous week. Actual transactions are priced according to quality. The current arrival volume is still low, mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The terminal sales speed of apples is slow, with good - quality fruits being digested at a reasonable speed and poor - quality fruits slowly. There is a slight backlog in transit warehouses [1] Inventory - As of August 20, according to Steel Union data, the national cold - storage inventory is 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down slightly. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 7.11%, a decrease of 0.89%, and in Shaanxi is 1.41%, a decrease of 0.43%. According to Zhuochuang data, the national cold - storage inventory is 404,200 tons, a decrease of 57,100 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 5.26%, a decrease of 0.59%, and in Shaanxi is 2.65%, a decrease of 0.49% [2] Bagging Data - According to Steel Union data, based on bagging conditions, it is estimated that the national apple production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 2.35% to 3.73664 million tons. Among them, Shaanxi's production will increase by 7.57% to 878,840 tons, Shandong's will decrease by 9.89% to 782,370 tons, Gansu's will increase by 2.18% to 379,150 tons, and Henan's will increase by 21.09% to 274,280 tons [3] Market Analysis - The decrease in inventory and quality issues of early - maturing apples have led to an upward trend in the futures price. But the early - stage speculation may be premature, and price fluctuations due to the gap between expectations and reality should be guarded against [3] Futures Price Analysis - From the futures market, the recent trend is strong. If there is strong support at 8150, the pressure range around 8400 can be considered [4] Market Concerns - Cold - storage inventory removal, weather conditions in production areas, and the opening price and transaction volume of early - maturing apples [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing prices of various apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) have declined to varying degrees, with AP10 having the largest decline of 1.65%. Among spot prices, the price of Qixia's first - and second - grade 80 apples has decreased by 1.32%, while the prices of other regions remain unchanged. The futures profit has decreased by 8.94%, and the main basis has increased by 26.55% [7]