黑色金属日报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled steel: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish tendency, with a driving force for price increase, but the market is less operable [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, same as coke [1] - Silicon - manganese: ★☆☆, same as coke [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend, and the market is evolving [1] Core Views - The overall market is in a complex situation, with factors such as "anti - involution" policies, weak demand, and event - related production restrictions influencing prices. After significant price drops, most varieties have relatively limited downside space [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Steel - The futures market rebounded today. Thread demand increased, production decreased, and inventory rose. Hot - rolled steel demand improved, production and inventory increased. Iron - water production remained high, facing negative feedback pressure. Overall inventory levels were low. With the approaching parade, pay attention to production restrictions in Tangshan. Downstream industries had weak domestic demand, and the impact of "cracking down on false orders" on exports should be noted. The market was affected by factors such as Shanghai's property market relaxation and stock market rally [2] Iron Ore - The futures market rose today. Global shipments declined from the high level but were still stronger than last year. Brazilian and non - mainstream shipments decreased significantly, while Australian shipments to China increased. Domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory increased slightly, expected to continue in the short term. Terminal demand was transitioning between peak and off - peak seasons, and iron - water production was expected to decrease around the parade. The market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. With a major event approaching, some coking plants were expected to cut production. Iron - water daily output increased, and steel - making profits were high. The eighth round of coke price increase was proposed, and coking daily output increased slightly. Overall inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness declined. The market was affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility and limited downside space [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. Coking coal mine production decreased, spot auction transactions weakened, and prices followed the futures market down. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total inventory increased, and production - end inventory was likely to continue increasing in the short term. The market was affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility and limited downside space [6] Silicon - manganese - The price fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. Iron - water production remained above 240. Weekly production increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly this week, but due to the approaching event, manufacturers stocked up in advance, and the price had limited downside space. In the long term, manganese ore was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was around 30,000 tons. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly. Overall demand was acceptable. Supply increased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. The price followed silicon - manganese, with limited downside space after a significant drop [8]