Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Report Date and Author - The report is dated August 25, 2025, and the author is Bai Jing from the research institute, with the qualification number F03097282 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018999 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday night increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, leading to a volatile rebound in commodity prices. Fundamentally, both shipments and arrivals decreased this period, and with pre - parade safety inspections at domestic mines, the short - term supply contraction expectation strengthened. Iron ore production remained at a high level but was expected to decline due to end - of - month northern production restrictions. The 01 contract has strong support at $95 (762), and the price may fluctuate in the range of $95 - $100 in the short term [11] Summary by Section Part 1: Fundamentals and Conclusion Price and Inventory - Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot fluctuated. As of August 22, the Platts 62% index closed at $100.35, down $1.45 week - on - week, equivalent to about 839 yuan at the exchange rate of 7.18. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 789 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot. China's 47 - port iron ore inventory increased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. It is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [7] Supply - Global iron ore shipments totaled 3315.8 tons this period, a decrease of 90.8 tons week - on - week. Shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 2692.7 tons, an increase of 23.0 tons. Australian shipments increased by 276.8 tons to 1881.0 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 310.7 tons to 1658.2 tons. Brazilian shipments decreased by 253.8 tons to 811.7 tons. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China totaled 2462.3 tons, a decrease of 240.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily iron ore production of 247 sample steel mills increased this period, reaching 240.75 tons/day, an increase of 0.09 tons/day week - on - week. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, iron ore production may decline next period. As of August 22, the long - process cash - in - hand cost and profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China were provided, and the electric - furnace cost and profit were also given [9][10] Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - The report provides the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is Newman powder with a warehouse receipt price of 789 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal is PB powder with a warehouse receipt price of 797 yuan/ton [16] Iron Ore Inter - delivery Spread - As of August 22, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 19 (+3) [19] Premium Index - As of August 21, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.181 (+0.001), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 16 (-) [29] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of August 22, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills was 1254, a decrease of 63.6 (-4.83%) week - on - week; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8, a decrease of 2.3 (-2.63%); the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 (-4.76%) [35] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of August 22, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills was 9065.7, a decrease of 70.70 (-0.77%) week - on - week; the daily consumption was 297.8, a decrease of 0.68 (-0.23%); the inventory - to - sales ratio was 30.4, a decrease of 0.17 (-0.56%) [38] Port Inventory and Berthing - The report presents the historical data and trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, and trade ore inventory in 45 ports [41] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 22, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1744, an increase of 56 (3.32%); the inventory of pellet ore was 307, a decrease of 18 (-5.39%); the inventory of iron concentrate was 1102, an increase of 7 (0.64%); the inventory of coarse powder was 10692, a decrease of 20 (-0.18%) [44] Shipment Volume - The report provides the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [46][47] Iron Ore Import Quantity - The report shows the historical import volume data of the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [52][53][54][55][56][57][58] Australian Iron Ore Shipments - As of August 22, Australian shipments to China were 1658, an increase of 311 (23.06%) week - on - week; total Australian shipments were 1881, an increase of 276.8 (17.25%); the proportion of shipments to China was 88.16%, an increase of 4.2% (4.95%) [62] Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - As of August 22, Brazilian shipments to the world were 812, a decrease of 254 (-23.82%) week - on - week [67] Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of August 22, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 103 (20.74%); BHP's shipments decreased by 15 (-3.82%); Vale's shipments decreased by 214 (-27.18%); FMG's shipments increased by 172 (70.40%) [68] Iron Ore Arrivals - As of August 22, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2393, a decrease of 83 (-3.4%) week - on - week; the arrivals at northern ports were 1153, a decrease of 100 (-7.9%) week - on - week [75] Freight Rates - The report shows the historical freight rate data of Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao and Western Australia - Qingdao [77] Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - As of August 22, the production of iron concentrate in mines was 76.8, a decrease of 2.1 (-2.67%) week - on - week; the inventory of iron concentrate in mines was 33, a decrease of 2 (-4.74%) [79] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 22, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.3, an increase of 0.03 (0.03%); the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.8, a decrease of 0.36 (-0.59%); the daily consumption of domestic sintered powder was 8.4, a decrease of 0.30 (-3.46%) [81] Pig Iron Production - The report provides the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 - 2025, as well as the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [88] Global Pig Iron Production - The report shows the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [91] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - The report presents the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, as well as the month - on - month and year - on - year changes [96]
宏观预期提振，矿价震荡反弹
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-25 12:38