能源日报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt and liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term unilateral risk of oil prices is upward, and there is still significant uncertainty in geopolitical changes in the next two weeks. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [2]. - The fundamentals of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil are relatively more bullish than before. Due to geopolitical conflicts, high-sulfur resources are more affected by geopolitical premiums, and the spread between FU and SC cracking has strengthened [3][4]. - The international LPG market rebounded supported by import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to increase. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose. Brent's October contract rose 2.51%, and SC10 contract rose 1.13% [2]. - The promotion of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement was not as smooth as the market expected. Since August, Ukraine has frequently attacked Russian energy infrastructure, and the market's previous pricing of the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation has been revised [2]. - The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options have reached the lower end of the range and are still relatively sensitive to bullish geopolitical risks. Trump mentioned that if Russia and Ukraine do not hold direct talks within two weeks, large-scale sanctions will be imposed [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Monday, the fuel oil futures continued to strengthen, with the FU increase being obvious, and the main contract rose above 2900 yuan/ton [3][4]. - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year-on-year. At the same time, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries to produce marine fuel was also low, and the supply decreased by 19% year-on-year as of July [3][4]. - The onshore fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure showed a relief trend [3][4]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts in Russia and Iran, high-sulfur resources are more affected by geopolitical premiums. In terms of variety spreads, the spread between FU and SC cracking has strengthened, and the spreads between LU-FU and BU-FU have significantly narrowed [3][4]. Asphalt - The content is the same as that of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil [3][4]. LPG - The international LPG market rebounded supported by import demand. Currently, the domestic arrival volume continues to increase. Due to the low-price goods in the early stage, the sales pressure is limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5]. - With the stabilization of crude oil, the spread between naphtha and propane remains at an advantageous level, and there is high chemical demand in the short term [5].