Dongguan Securities·2025-08-25 12:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating a balanced outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The recent Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant turning point for the real estate industry, emphasizing urban renewal as a key focus for future development [10][39]. - The industry is transitioning from an "incremental expansion" model to a "stock quality improvement" model, driven by urbanization trends and demographic changes [12][24]. - The report suggests that the real estate market is entering a "second half," where the focus will shift to urban renewal and the transformation of business models among real estate companies [10][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Significance of the Central Urban Work Conference - The conference, held for the first time in ten years, provides a new direction for urban development, indicating a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development [7][10]. - It highlights the need for urban renewal and the transformation of the real estate industry to adapt to changing market conditions [8][10]. 2. Transition from "Incremental Expansion" to "Stock Quality Improvement" - The report identifies the end of the "incremental expansion" era, as urbanization approaches its peak [12][14]. - Population structure changes, including declining birth rates and an aging population, are negatively impacting housing demand [16][19]. - Market supply and demand are in a continuous decline, with significant drops in real estate sales and investment [20][21]. 3. Urban Renewal as a Core Focus - Urban renewal is positioned as a critical strategy for high-quality urban development and economic growth [25][30]. - Recent government policies emphasize the importance of urban renewal and the renovation of old residential areas [26][28]. 4. Accelerated Industry Cleansing in the New Model - The overall profitability of the real estate industry is declining, with many listed companies reporting losses for the first time [32][33]. - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with a growing divide between high-demand urban areas and oversupplied lower-tier cities [38]. - The dual-track development model of "commercial housing + affordable housing" is emerging, addressing the needs of different income groups [38][39]. 5. Overall Perspective and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate industry is entering a new phase characterized by urban renewal and quality improvement [39]. - It recommends focusing on stable, leading state-owned enterprises and regional leaders in first- and second-tier cities, such as Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou [39][41].