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价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08):反内卷语境看价格结构性修复
Guoxin Securities·2025-08-25 13:14

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural price recovery in the context of anti-involution, with significant price movements observed across various sectors, particularly in upstream coal, midstream agriculture, and downstream chemicals [1][2][3] - A total of 49 major products were tracked, with 19 experiencing price increases, 28 seeing declines, and 2 remaining stable as of early August 2025, indicating a clear divergence in price trends across different industries [1][2] Price Tracking of Key Production Materials - As of early August 2025, prices for key production materials showed a mixed trend, with notable increases in upstream coal products and certain chemicals, while black metals and construction materials continued to face downward pressure due to weak downstream demand [1][2] - Year-on-year data indicates that industrial prices are still in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is stabilizing, with some sectors like steel and certain chemicals beginning to recover [1][2][3] Price Changes Across Industry Chains - Recent data indicates that upstream industries remain weak, with coal prices declining by 6% to 7%, while midstream sectors show signs of recovery, with indices for bulk commodities and shipping improving [2][3] - Downstream sectors are under pressure, particularly in real estate and traditional medicine, while food prices remain stable with slight declines in certain agricultural products [2][3] Industry Price Sentiment Tracking - The report analyzes price differentials across the supply chain, revealing that upstream resource prices are generally weak but exhibit significant differentiation, with precious metals and some non-ferrous metals performing well [3] - The midstream bulk commodity index has shown signs of recovery, while the construction materials sector continues to struggle, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [3]