固定收益市场周观察：本轮赎回压力或止于基金端

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment environment of this round of the bond market is different from the past. The redemption pressure may stop at the fund level, and the situation of comprehensive and substantial supplementary decline in the bond market and significant redemption of wealth management products by residents may not occur [4][7]. - The redemption pressure caused by the decline of the bond market this time is mostly concentrated in the fund level. Institutions reduce bond positions and redeem funds, but the pressure may stop at institutional redemptions and not spread to residents redeeming wealth management products [15]. - The "right - hand side" signal of this round of the bond market may appear earlier than expected. Investors are advised to pay attention to central bank operations and interest rate trends [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - During the recent bond market adjustment, investors have different views on bond investment. One view is that the bond market decline will end after short - term and credit bonds fully make up for the decline or after residents panic - redeem wealth management products. However, the report believes that the adjustment environment is different this time, and the redemption pressure may stop at the fund level [4][7]. - There are three reasons: 1) During this bond adjustment, funds are continuously loose, and the central bank cares about the capital market. The adjustment is not caused by capital shortage, and the risk of supplementary decline in bonds is controllable, which has less impact on wealth management products held by residents [8]. 2) This bond adjustment is in the stage of accelerating decline in broad - spectrum interest rates, and investors have a more adequate expectation of the decline in investment returns and are more likely to accept the decline in wealth management yields, making it less likely for negative feedback to occur [10]. 3) Wealth management products used the smoothing valuation method in 2024, which stabilized the scale and helped the stable liability side of wealth management [13]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Domestic August PMI to be Announced - China will announce August PMI, the US will announce July core PCE and August University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and the ECB will announce the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting [17]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Volume Declines - This week, the issuance of local bonds continues at a high level, and there is no issuance plan for national bonds at the end of the month. It is expected that a total of 5116 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds will be issued, falling to a relatively low level in the same period. Among them, there is no issuance plan for national bonds, 81 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 3516 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - financial bonds is expected to be about 1600 billion yuan [19]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.1 Net Reverse Repurchase Operation Injection of 1.37 Trillion - The central bank's open - market operation has a net injection of more than one trillion. The reverse repurchase injection scale first rises and then falls, with a total injection of 2077 billion yuan and a net injection of 1365.2 billion yuan. After adding the net withdrawal of treasury fixed - term deposits, the open - market operation has a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. The capital price first rises and then falls. The repurchase trading volume gradually rises to 7.38 trillion, and the overnight ratio average falls to around 88%. The capital interest rate first rises and then falls [22][23]. - The issuance scale of certificates of deposit declines, and the primary and secondary prices both rise. From August 18th to August 24th, the issuance scale is 549.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale is 794.7 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is - 245.5 billion yuan. The primary and secondary interest rates of certificates of deposit both rise [29]. 3.2 Weak Liability - Side Stability of Fixed - Income Asset Management Products - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through upwards again, and interest rates were under pressure. The liability - side stability of fixed - income asset management products was weak, facing greater redemption pressure. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3800 points, and interest rates rose significantly again. On August 22nd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year national bonds all increased compared with the previous week, with the 3 - year national bond rising the most, up 9.7bp [41]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates are differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and petroleum asphalt operating rate decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate and PTA operating rate rise. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrows [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales have rebounded to a relatively high level. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area is still significantly negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI have decreased by 3.1% and 1.5% respectively [49]. - On the price side, the crude oil price rises, the copper and aluminum prices are differentiated, and the coal prices are also differentiated. In the middle - stream, the building materials composite price index decreases by 1.1%, the cement index increases by 1.8%, and the glass index decreases by 3.1%. The output of rebar decreases, the inventory rapidly rises to 4.33 million tons, and the futures price decreases by 2.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork change by 1.9%, - 1.3%, and 0.2% respectively [50].